Laura Ru

"If the US and Europe don't offer security to Ukraine, China might step into the gap, using its leverage on Russia. They could even offer a better deal than Trump's,"

"Ukraine has a lot to offer to China in return for security-rebuilding, ports, agricultural produce. There will be those in Europe who will support this. This gambit could be called a 'Kissinger', splitting the US and Europe as Kissinger split the Soviet Union and China. China as Ukraine's protector would start replacing the US in the role of keeping Russia out of the Eastern Flank. EU countries in the East would be dependent on China's protection and the racketeering would spread West.

What needs to happen to avoid this all-too-likely disaster? My hope lies with Europe, with the appearance of a leader with Churchill’s resolve, the spirit to say we will never surrender, we will defend all of Europe, from Ukraine to Portugal."

"The 61st Munich Security Conference has underscored the complex challenges facing Europe and the urgent need for the continent to define its strategic role in an increasingly volatile global landscape.
From the persistent conflict in Ukraine to rising uncertainties in the transatlantic alliance, as well as mounting pressures on the EU's vision for the international order, the conference focused on the multiple crises Europe faces. It also highlighted the need for the continent to navigate these complexities and assert its place on the world stage.[...] Europe's ability to determine its role and strategic path will be of paramount importance, said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China."

We must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.

Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.

A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again.
This must not be Minsk 3.0. The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement. Instead any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.

If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission. And they should not be covered under Article 5. There also must be robust international oversight of the line of contact.

To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine.

To further enable effective diplomacy and drive down energy prices that fund the Russian war machine, President Trump is unleashing American energy production and encouraging other nations to do the same. Lower energy prices coupled with more effective enforcement of energy sanctions will help bring Russia to the table. Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine. This means: Donating more ammunition and equipment. Leveraging comparative advantages. Expanding your defense industrial base. And importantly, leveling with your citizens about the threat facing Europe.

Part of this is speaking frankly with your people about how this threat can only be met by spending more on defense.
2% is not enough; President Trump has called for 5%, and I agree. We're also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.

The United States faces consequential threats to our homeland. We must – and we are – focusing on security of our own borders.

We also face a peer competitor in the Communist Chinese with the capability and intent to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. is prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific, recognizing the reality of scarcity, and making the resourcing tradeoffs to ensure deterrence does not fail. As the United States prioritizes its attention to these threats, European allies must lead from the front.

Together, we can establish a division of labor that maximizes our comparative advantages in Europe and Pacific respectively. The United States remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe.
But the United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.