GEOSTRATEGIST

Simple technological lines lead to dead ends

A few months ago(rus), we discussed in detail the differences(rus) between the division of labor and the deepening of labor (i.e. intensification and optimization of technological chain/the division of knowledge. Surprisingly, many modern economists do not distinguish these concepts and combine them. Therefore, they cannot recognize and describe the principles of building a post-capitalist economy, in which the factor of volume expansion division is reduced and the principle of labor deepening dominates.

Let's look at an example of almost purely traditional and understandable division of labor, a sort of Adam Smith's "pin factory" on a global scale – the microelectronics industry, which has developed over the past two decades entirely by the methods of division of labor, isolation, and pushing the existing technological stages to their physical limits. The result has been a unique industry consisting of many local monopolists around the globe, with a consumer market of at least 500 million industrial consumers required to maintain current price levels. If we try to localize microelectronics in Russia, spending 3-4 trillion dollars, we will get a price level 7-8 times higher than the current one. For the USA, this indicator will be twice as high.

In the development we have taken the easiest way, increasing the length of technological chains,which is equivalent to increasing the size of the sales market. However, further development is impossible even without the global catastrophe, because we have almost reached physical limits and thresholds. A couple more phases of development and we will be limited by the laws of quantum effects which is a dead end of the current technological pathway.

A very different example is a hypersonic technology based on the principles of division of labor and deepening of knowledge. In order to achieve the desired effect, the number of missiles needed has been reduced by two orders of magnitude (by 100 times). We have already mentioned that the threat posed by an aircraft carrier, a cruiser or a frigate can now be eliminated by a single hypersonic missile. Recently, a new Sarmat(rus) intercontinental ballistic missile, also known as "Satan II", has been tested. The entry into service of this missile has reduced the number of missiles needed to destroy the military technological potential of the United States and the EU by the same two orders of magnitude. How much has the new approach increased the length of the technological chains? What do you think about this?

I suppose that in 7-10 years against the background of the collapsing global world and in an attempt to localize, Russia will be able to significantly reduce and simplify the technological set of microelectronics, moving away from the required number of 500 million industrial consumers. The main point is that there should be such a task and we will not simply copy the technologies.

And yeah, under the circumstances of the global catastrophe, a bunch of small satellites distributing the Internet sounds nice, but a few missiles capable of destroying the enemy and weapons capable of shooting down other people's satellites, in addition to being supplied for export, is a strategically correct choice, acting in the long term…)))

Prospects of Nazism and Fascism in Europe

Against the background of increasingly evident Nazism in Ukraine, the rise of the terror towards its own population and the hypocritical position of the EU and the United States, many have begun wondering whether the restoration of Nazism and/or fascism faces Europe. There are some historical foundations for this: during the second half of the 1930s, only two European capitalistic states did not have noticeable symptoms of this disease - France and Czechoslovakia.

In one of the very first articles on geostrategy, I noted(rus) that the establishment of social nationalism (with differences from the Third Reich) in Europe is basically the only non-fabulous way to obtain sovereignity(the capacity and capability to act independently) after the collapse of the global structure of the world. The agent and initiator of this project can be the continental elites of Europe/Vatican - the peoples living on the territories of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire. Such developments seemed incredible within the framework of a tolerant and multicultural Europe, nevertheless today the situation has changed. Let's analyze what needs to happen for such a scenario to turn into a reality.

There will be no problems with the elites: there were no doubts about the readiness of the traditional elites, and now even the liberals no longer hide much sympathy for nationalism(rus), and from that point Nazism is not far away. A few of years ago, there were reasonable suspicions about the readiness of European society to accept harsh forms of restrictions, but collective compulsory vaccination, rapidly aroused hatred towards Russians, etc. showed an exceptionally high degree of controllability and lack of mental immunity to the highly severe manipulation.

The major problems in establishing Nazism in Europe are ordinary punishers, whose number is up to hundreds of thousands, or even millions. Several generations of intentional zeroing of passionarity have destroyed the base for the rapid creation of new blackshirts, Nazi battalions. In addition, it is dangerous to bring others, Ukrainian nationalists will be crushed in the Donbass in the nearest future. Remaining are the inadequate, antisocial, and mentally ill, but most of them are from foreigners, which is even worse. If you recruit assault contingents from Arabs and Blacks, then the remaining troops will revolt, and the elites simply will not hold out. Time needed for this requires 5-7 years, however only 2-3 years are available. Only option that remains is initiating a civil war, distribute arms to "friends" and send them to kill foes, tying them with blood feud, hoping to maintain control over the bloody bacchanalia.

Against the background of the aforementioned, political reforms, the introduction of fascist principles of governance, etc. do not seem to be something complicated. If the passionarity of European society were higher, within 3-4 years there would be a unified liberal-nationalist Fourth Rome with the features of the Reich in place of the EU, but degradation has gone too far.

The main scenario for Europe for upcoming 2-3 years (2024-2025) is a socio–economic catastrophe. All which are beginning now is only a small-scale crisis against the background of the future, and at the same time, the expected withdrawal of the United States and Europe, will considerably complicate the situation. By 2027, many countries of the continent will exist only on the map, unable to control their territory and maintain economic and administrative connectivity ("New Hansa(rus)"). If Russia follows the "Third Rome(rus)" strategy, it will mean that at this point we will begin to take control of the parts of Europe which are interesting to us and form governorship there.

And yeah, the willingness and desire of European elites to launch a new form of nationalism/Nazism as a unifying idea is not surprising; one thing pleases – there is not enough time for this…

Everybody feared the Global meltdown yet it was inevitable (2/2)

As a result, the world breaks down into parts/panregions. Look at the changes in the importance and potential of the different countries in the last twenty years, the processes are accelerating.. The US has abandoned the Middle East and Central Asia, Europe (2024-2025) and the Far East (2026-2027) are waiting their turn. Some countries have got involved in a desperate fight to win the right to establish their own panregion. This requires the consolidation of a 300-500 million industrial population to close the economic and technological chains.

What is in store for the world is this: Within 2 or 3 years there will be a massive global collapse; followed by the emergence of pan-regions (1-2 years) and then economic recovery (5-7 years) based on the principle of industrial (4th technological mode) and post-industrial (5th technological mode) economies. In 2035-2040 the advanced panregions will move to trans-industrial economy (6th technological mode, additive technologies, robotization, closed nuclear cycle, etc.) those who will fail to do so, will lose its sovereignty and will be assimilated or conquered.

To establish a panregion nations should do their best to isolate themselves from disastrous consequences of the global world. They should dispose of obsolete principles(rus), they should switch to mobilization economy, they should launch a process of rotation of the elite. Russia is the first to have taken a step in this direction. Russia might be aware of the fact, that without fierce stress and outward pressure it will not be able to eradicate compradors, who intruded the elite and have been in it starting from 1990s., in my estimation, similar events should have started in 1 or 2 years(rus), but apparently, they decided not to wait or could not...

The events in Ukraine are essential for Russia primarily because of their domestic implications, the possibility of a rotation of elites(rus) and the mucking out of Augean stables after liberal rule. All other nations will have to follow suit: to go through transition of the economy and social life to the military mode, mobilization, concentration of resources, unification, the introduction of command, centralized planning. Those who are not willing to do it will disappear within a decade, will lose their identity as nations and cultures.

It's a no-brainer for Russia; there is no turning back. No matter what happens, there is no alternative. Medium and long-term benefits and opportunities for a better future have replaced short-term problems.

And yeah, the picture looks good, its clear that it will not be easy for the entire world, but it is a chance, an all-in game…

Everyone feared the Global meltdown yet it was inevitable (1/2)

Today, many people are absorbed in the Ukrainian events, remain unaware of what lies in the heart of it, being ignorant of the general context. Let’s have a broader, global look at the situation. What you are going to read this time has been covered in my writing in every detail (you will find some references in the text). It is my sincere wish that this time, a comprehensive picture will be put together, and that the meaning and logic of what is going on will become clear. In order to have a better picture of where the World is headed towards to – watch the video(rus) or download my book(rus) from the net, it is available free of charge in e-libraries (a revised version which is twice as big is currently at the publisher’s).

Humanity is on the verge of a global social catastrophe, the biggest for the last 400 years. The World passed the point of no return long ago, countries cannot change much, they can only, to some extent, shift their problems onto their neighbors and give the World a little bit more time. What lies at the heart of the disaster(rus) is ever-growing interconnectiveness, which blocks the world system principle and the crisis of the demise of capitalism which implies that the non-capitalist periphery exposed to plundering to mitigate the current crisis no longer exists.

The collapse of the USSR delayed the catastrophe for 30 years by robbing the former Soviet bloc but did not prevent it. The economic crisis today is just a part of the problem, the meltdown will be as big as 50% from 2019, in advanced economies like US or EU, it is up to 70%. Comparatively, the Russian economy declined by just over 30% in the 1990s. Now the entire world economy is facing the same threat, but the collapse will be so abrupt that it will be almost impossible to maintain any degree of stability. The Valley of the Pyramids, the aggregation of speculative markets will disappear, and the social consequences of the catastrophe will be terrible, but this has been predicted, foretold and logically justified for centuries.

Over the past 30 years the western elite has been designing the global world, guided by right-liberal principles, but they have failed. The economic benefit gained as a result of the unification (globalization) proved to be a lot less than the resistance of various nations, cultures, religions and social principles (mankind is incredibly diverse). The new tower of Babel is falling apart, which is natural, and we are bearing witness to this. The architects of the global world are aware of it and are trying to slow the process(rus) down by designing new simulacra: inclusive capitalism(rus), the global warming(rus), covid-19 etc. but to no avail.

Hello, dear friends!
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