/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

"Commentary on China’s economy swings wildly between extremes. On the one hand, the Chinese economy is often portrayed as deeply troubled, perhaps even on the verge of collapse. Stories in this vein emphasize China’s very high debt burden, slowing growth, distressed real-estate sector, and aging population—all real problems. President Joe Biden repeated a version of this argument in an interview with TIME magazine in June, where he stated that China’s economy is 'on the brink.'...

"It may be the case that China’s export- and manufacturing-oriented development model has been successful enough to propel China to the technology frontier in the short term, but not successful enough to help the country outrun its structural problems in the long term. This is certainly the narrative that many in Washington prefer, as it recalls our victory in the Cold War. Then, an innovative, dynamic, and capitalist United States triumphed over an adversary with a gerontocratic and dysfunctional political class and a communist economic model incapable of managing the transition to the information age. It is tempting to believe that a similar triumph is now assured because our nation has been so successful in the past. We win, they lose. But an invincible belief in one’s own success is a recipe for complacency. And increasingly, this belief is at odds with the evidence in front of our faces. If this report conveys any message, let it be that the United States cannot be complacent about Communist China. Think-tank scholars and economists may bank on China’s coming collapse. Beijing is taking the other side of that wager. It believes that manufacturing, exports, and “new quality productive forces” are the keys to regime survival and indeed to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

It believes that technology and production will enable it to preserve its communist system while becoming a rich country. So far, it has succeeded in blazing this alternative development path. But suppose today is the high-water mark of China’s power. Even in such an optimistic scenario, the CCP will still present a real, existential threat to American industry and workers for years to come. And Communist China will still be a more formidable adversary than any the United States has faced in living memory. At this point, the burden of proof should be on the critics who insist the CCP’s project is doomed to fail."