CryptoFrog's Gems 💎🐸

Was this dip expected? 🤔
 
Looking seasonality and comparing the current market to last new cycles, we begin to identify certain patterns.
 
Time of Year 🗓
 
During the holiday season, investors can expect lower liquidity, less volume, and overall less activity in the markets as a whole.
 
Why? Investors and traders, like everyone else, have lives, plans, and traditions they like to spend at home with their loved ones. Typically fund managers and investors will close positions, similar to how schools, offices, and facilities close for 1-2 weeks from the middle of December to the new year.
 
Tax Loss Harvesting 🛡
 
This is a strategy used by investors to offset or reduce capital gains owed by selling profitable investments. This is done by selling an asset at a net loss, then using proceedings from a sale to purchase a similar asset and maintain the position.
 
For example: An investor purchases BTC and recognizes a $5000 gain, but sells ETH for a $3000 loss, which would make them being for taxes on $2000 gain instead of a $5000 gain.
 
It is common for investors to do this towards the end of the year, where we are right now, before tax deadlines. Due to increased selling pressure, the market can (and has) seen a downtrend right around the end of the year.
 
New year brings in New Money 💲
 
Historically, January has seen upwards price movement due to a few factors…
 
⁃ Traders re-investing their positions post-tax-loss harvesting in the same or similar assets.
 
⁃ People are back at work and trading continues as normal, driving liquidity and volume back up.
 
⁃ Institutions may re-open positions in January due to refreshed capital allocations.
 
⁃ Retail investors may deploy extra cash from bonuses, year-end savings, etc into the markets.
 
⁃ A new sense of optimism and a fresh, new year will often bring positive sentiment.
 
I think we will have a few weeks of negative or consolidating price action for the remainder of 2024. However, in no way do I think this is the top. HODL and DCA your bags, spend time with family and friends during the holidays, and don't panic sell your positions. There is still light at the end of the tunnel, Q1 will treat us well! 🤝

The fed cut interest rates by 25b bps yesterday, so WHY are markets nuking?...

Although rate cuts tend to be bullish for risk assets like bitcoin, this market crash has a lot less to do with the actual rate cut itself and more to do with the feds outlook in 2025.

The markets had pretty much priced in another 3-4 rate cuts to happen in 2025 as the fed was expecting. Yesterday, the fed shook up the pot by announcing they will be likely be more hawkish in 2025, with only 2 rate cuts. THIS is what the markets had reacted over, not the 25 bps cut itself. Markets are forward looking and tend to react to what will happen in the future, and the fed cutting less is bearish for the markets as a whole.

Risk assets performed poorly on this news. We saw the DXY hit yearly ATHs, while watching the DOW, S&P, and other indices have historically bad days. Crypto has also underperformed, having bitcoin drop over 10% from its ATHs while many alts experienced 20%+ pullbacks.

Now does this mean the bullrun is over? I don’t believe so. Although the economy is in a transitionary period, I am confident enough in the narratives of this bullrun to keep pushing us higher for a few more months. Short term with the upcoming inflation news and low liquidity during the holidays we may experience some volatility, but don't think this is the end. See this moment as a blessing for being able to buy crypto for less and keep HODLING. 🫡

With the FOMC meeting coming tomorrow, I've been looking at some of the potential outcomes…🤔
 
Tomorrow is the last FOMC meeting before Donald Trump takes office in just a few weeks. Economists are predicting that a 25 point basis cut will take place, making for the third consecutive cut.
 
Markets have already priced in the 25 point cut, leaving investors to look out for statements and projections from Chair Jerome Powell for insight on where future monetary policy may be headed. However, the FED could also take other actions outside of this, which would affect the crypto markets in different ways.
 
What does this mean for Bitcoin? 💰
 
Bitcoin just hit $108k, yet another ATH, and it is important to recognize the implications on the price and movement of BTC from the Fed's interest rate decision.
 
In the Case of a 25 Basis Point Cut:
 
Our base case scenario. Since this outcome has already been priced in, the short-term impact will probably not be significant.
 
50 Basis Point Cut:
 
We could see a 50 basis point cut, which would result in a very strong rally and positive price action, since lower rates promote bank lending and the purchase of risk-on assets. 📈
 
In the Case of No Cut:
 
Most bearish scenario here. Less liquidity flow is the likely outcome, as investors have less of an incentive to buy or hold Bitcoin with a stronger dollar. We would likely see a large correction in the markets. 📉

My Stance:
 
I think that the Fed will go through with a 25 basis point reduction, as expected, and we might see some near-term volatility at the announcement, but in general everything should stay the same.I think it is unlikely we see anything more than 25, and I highly doubt the Fed will take no action at all.
 
I think 25 basis points is the best case, with momentum high and more and more adoption coming to cryptocurrency every single day. Let me know what you guys think down below 👇

$OCTO just hit $30M! 📈
 
Called these guys at a $14M Mcap about a month ago, and after bouncing between $10-15M for a few weeks, we are finally seeing a breakout! Shared this one into my Alpha Chat at launch, giving the Alphas solid 10-20x's depending on entry.
 
Recall that this is a SOL utility token, offering users the ability to launch tokens with ease. Some of their unique features including wallet creation, pricing, and market analysis. 👀
 
The team ran a 9 figure project (Solchat), which we called back in February pre-launch, hitting $200M Mcap! Second time working with these guys now, excited to see where they will take $OCTO.
 
Volume is starting to pick up here at around 2 million, looking great alongside that GOD candle. I am expecting the team to use the momentum to keep building! $24m now. 🚀

$S has been COOKING recently!

Sui projects have clearly been outperforming the markets recently, and $S is no different. Hitting an ATH of $10m Mcap today! That’s a 100x for my alphas who got in at a $100k Mcap… 📈

AI memes are still bigger than ever and since this is the first one on Sui, there is a LOT of potential to see some more moves to the upside from here. Volume has been strong for the Sui chain and price action looks great!

They are adding new features for their community like AI whale wallet tracking and copy trading. I’m excited to see this team keep building. 👀

$AXOL hit an $80m Mcap 🤯
 
Called back in September at launch around 590k Mcap, this has delivered an ENORMOUS 135x from our "Degens Channel" post, and an even bigger 178x from the CryptoPond shill at $450k.
 
Easily one of the best communities I've ever seen, with an absolute mastermind Keith behind it all, not to mention the rest of the team KILLING it with the exchanges, spaces, artwork, game, and more.
 
$AXOL has a TON of room to grow. With Phantom integration confirmed and soon to come, I think we are still early on $AXOL and the SUI ecosystem as a whole. What other new chain is doing it like SUI right now?
 
Our channel has been on TOP of the SUI ecosystem and memecoins, with several other runners cooking up huge X's for us including $LOFI (#1 by market cap on SUI), $Suicy (mascot of SUI chain), and $Agent S (50x cooker called just earlier this week). Out of all of these, $AXOL has always been, and continues to be my favorite and highest-conviction play.
 
I know a lot of you guys are up BIG right now, so I am asking to please send your PnL's down below in the comments for us to gather, and you may have a shot at being featured on our @FrogInsider Instagram page! GG's to those of you who are holding, raiding, and being an active part of our community, we know who you are. The dip just got EATEN, $76m now!

Agent S has been KILLING it so far! Called these guys at a $100k Mcap in my Alpha Chat, giving the Alphas a solid 40x at ATH! 📈
 
Some consolidation after hitting $4m, but the chart looks prime for the next leg up. The team is also coming out with a new feature to allow you to be able to track top wallets, in order to replicate the transactions of whales!
 
They are adding support for all chains, and with complete telegram integration, everyone will be able to use this feature. 👀
 
We have been killing it with all of our calls on the SUI chain, now with this one reaching a 40x! Could see more numbers here, $2.7m!

https://t.me/agentS_portal

My $SUI plays have been KILLING IT over the past few days!! 💧


First, $LOFI cracked 100m Mcap! Becoming the SECOND EVER memecoin in the SUI chain to do so! They have since continued ripping hitting 145m Mcap, briefly making it the TOP meme on the SUI chain… That’s a clean 15x+ from our call! It’s only a matter of time before $LOFI takes the cake for the top spot on SUI for good… ❄️


Next $SUICY has been going NUTS… I called this in our degens channel at 220k Mcap… Earlier today we saw $SUICY hit 12.5m Mcap!! That’s a HUGE 56x+ for anyone who aped! The dev is a huge G, constantly grinding! I expect more to come here. 🥶

Finally we got $AXOL, my HIGHEST conviction play right now! I gave this to my Degens channel at 590k Mcap… just earlier today $AXOL hit Another ATH if 43m Mcap! That’s a MASSIVE 72x+ for the frogs! This team has been building like CRAZY! With so much already done and so much more coming! 👑

I would not recommend fading the $SUI chain this cycle, something BIG is cooking here…