TomBen’s Web Excursions

历史的残局

https://wuyagege.substack.com/p/ebf

Response to George Qiao by the author of the book.

Dykstra, Maura. 2023. “Response to George Qiao’s Review of Uncertainty in the Empire of Routine: The Administrative Revolution of the Eighteenth-Century Qing State.” Journal of Chinese History 中國歷史學刊, December, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1017/jch.2023.35.

Four possible futures of China predicted in 2015 by Youwei, a pseudonym for a scholar based in China:

1. A new party might be born, one that could govern China with efficiency and benevolence. Policy reforms would continue, the country’s economic potential would be unleashed, and the resulting productivity and progress would boost the new party’s legitimacy and power. Such a future is unlikely.

2. The second and most likely future, at least in the short term, is a continuation of the status quo. This might be what we are experiencing.

3. The third possible future: democratization through a crisis. It has not emerged yet.

4. A fourth scenario—controlled and sequenced democratization—would be the best for China but is unfortunately unlikely.

Youwei. 2015. “The End of Reform in China.” Foreign Affairs 94 (3): 2–7. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2015-06-04/end-reform-china.

Fengshui in the Qing Dynasty courtroom 风水

Fengshui was not a guide to sofa placement, but a long-established body of Chinese knowledge about the natural environment in relationship to the constructed world.

Brown has written a new book about this rich and overlooked past, “Laws of the Land: Fengshui and the State in Qing Dynasty China,” published this month by Princeton University Press. In it, he examines the place of fengshui in Chinese society, specifically as a doctrine of knowledge used to inform legal cases and public policy decisions at a time of industrialization and modernization. In this sense, fengshui was not a matter of private taste, but a crucial part of the public sphere.

Remembering Li Keqiang: From divergence to convergence in Zhongnanhai

The unexpected passing of Li Keqiang, the former Chinese Premier, has prompted widespread public mourning, reflecting a profound sense of loss for a time of economic potential and openness. In assessing Li’s representation, achievement, and limitation, this study explores his policy orientation concerning state–market relations in comparison to General Secretary Xi Jinping.

Employing a semi-supervised machine learning method, our analysis reveals that Li favoured market-oriented policies, while Xi displayed a preference for state-centric approaches. Notably, the findings show an initial divergence between the two leaders, followed by a substantial narrowing of the gap during Xi’s second term. This study also finds that discursive differences between the two leaders were linked to a decline in firm-level investment, suggesting the gap in policy orientation may generate significant political uncertainty. As the first attempt to quantify Li Keqiang’s policy position and influence, this study contributes to the literature on the leadership dynamics in economic policy-making and its outcomes.

https://www.harvard-yenching.org/research/remembering-li-keqiang-from-divergence-to-convergence-in-zhongnanhai

AI and the transformation of social science research

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are transforming social science research, particularly with large language models (LLMs) that can simulate human-like responses and behaviors. LLMs have the potential to supplant human participants for data collection, generate responses across a wider range of parameters, and enhance policy analysis by reproducing views of different theoretical or ideological schools of thought.

However, incorporating LLMs into agent-based models (ABMs) introduces new challenges due to their differing operational principles. Researchers must establish guidelines for the ethical use of LLMs in research, addressing concerns related to data privacy, algorithmic fairness, environmental costs, and potential misuse of LLM-generated findings.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi1778

最近在 Pandoc 和 Quarto 的 GitHub repo 中发现了 Typst。Typst 是一种新型标记语言排版系统，由 Rust 编写，代码开源，旨在提供与 LaTeX 相当的强大功能，同时更易于学习和使用。使用 Typst 可以轻松生成优美的 PDF 文档（之后还将支持输出为 HTML 和 EPUB），并且渲染速度非常快。

Typst 的出现，源于两位来自柏林的开发者对 LaTeX 的不满意。不得不说，使用 LaTeX 确实很麻烦，不仅要下载硕大无比的 TeX Live 发行版，还要忍受极不友好的报错信息，对于中文用户来说，设置字体更是麻烦。很高兴有 Typst 这类工具的出现，推荐尝试一下。

Ishii, Viscount Kikujiro. 1933. “The Permanent Bases of Japanese Foreign Policy.” Foreign Affairs, January 1933. https://doi.org/10.2307/20030503.

1933 年，日本枢密院议员，曾任日本外交部部长的石井菊次郎（Viscount Kikujiro Ishii）在 Foreign Affairs 杂志上发表了一篇名为 The Permanent Bases of Japanese Foreign Policy 的文章，阐述了日本的两个核心外交政策：平等和安全（equality and security）：

Ever since Japan’s entrance into the family of modern nations in the middle of the nineteenth century her diplomacy has striven, and still strives, to attain two objectives — equality and security.

他所说的「平等」，就是与英美等文明国家（civilized Powers）平等相处，不被歧视（without legal discrimination），与中国近代「百年屈辱」叙事非常类似。

「安全」则是出于日本的历史、地理、人口、资源等条件。对日本来说，最大的威胁是俄国，因此为了自身的安全，它必须要占领朝鲜和中国东北（满洲），并为日本的经济发展提供支持。

通过这篇文章，可以一窥日本当时所感知的国际局势和国内的社会氛围。尽管这是 90 年前的事，但读来似乎完全不会感到陌生，不仅因为这段历史广为人们所熟知，更因为与今天的国际关系逻辑是类似的。

本文也有 网页版

Stop trying to have “interesting” friends

If I think about what kind of person I want to be close friends with—my best man at my wedding, people I would do anything for, the ones I can rely on when I’m at my lowest—smart and interesting really aren’t front of mind.

An alternative view is that friends are aspirational. You know you will change and grow, you acknowledge you don’t know for certain where you’re going, and your friends are the people you most want to share that journey with.

What should we look for in friends? What is a better north star to guide our relationships?

One thing I keep coming back to is open-mindedness. I’m drawn to people who don’t take themselves too seriously.

高耀洁：我一生几次逃难

我这次外出，完全是为了让艾滋病人用鲜血和生命换来的资料，不能在这个世界消失。我要为他们发声。2007 年 3 月，我赴美国领取「生命之音」奖，很多美国要人和权贵出面留我住在美国安度晚年，我没有接受，仍坚持回国了。因为我还要继续为艾滋病人伸冤，很多事情没有完成。但是这次，我不得已出走，因为我已经没有说话的地方了。

我是一个风烛残年的老人，非万不得己，不会只身离开自己的国家。这次盲目外出，不知所如，只是为了把这些资料 (关于中国艾滋病疫情的三本书) 留给后人。苍苍大地，茫茫人海，何处是我的归宿？

关于高耀洁的几件事

https://fxtwitter.com/evilinside44/status/1734227965255545328

高耀洁离世，为什么这个国家容不下讲真话的人？

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykhWI-2CbKw