Brian Berletic's New Atlas Channel

🇮🇱🇱🇧Israel Claims to have Assassinated Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah

▪️This remains to be confirmed by Hezbollah/Lebanon;
▪️Organizations like Hezbollah have continuity of leadership for such contingencies;
▪️Recall that Hassan Nasrallah assumed his position as Hezbollah leader in 1992 when the previous leader was killed by Israel;
▪️This is another moment where objectivity and strategy must prevail over emotions;

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🇮🇱🇱🇧🇮🇷Israeli Shock and Awe vs. Lebanon

▪️Israel is following a clear pattern of utilizing "shock and awe" to panic Lebanon/Hezbollah and their allies into fleeing, dividing, dissenting, or deserting;

▪️For those too young to remember the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War, try to recall the opening phases of the 2011 US proxy war in Syria or the Russian SMO where US-backed Ukraine attempted to convince the world they had the initiative - in each instance effort was placed in convincing US adversaries resistance was futile;

▪️Throughout these events, many in the alternative media responded emotionally, often with anger or panic (or both) only to find out in hindsight it wasn't nearly as bad as it seemed;

▪️This is not to say the intensity of Israeli operations is not cause for concern or that real damage isn't being done - it is a war and there will be a heavy cost - but that cost will always be higher if people give in to panic, anger, and other emotions;

▪️Objective analysis is more crucial than ever during the opening phases of hostilities, emotions are running high, and there exists many unknowns - psychological operations coupled with shock and awe depend on spreading emotions through a population - objective analysis is a bulwark against this;

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🇮🇱Israel's Iron Dome

▪️The system is designed to counter cheap, numerous and ineffective rockets fired by Hamas and Hezbollah and the occasional precision guided weapon, not large quantities of precision guided weapons;

▪️While recent conflicts see 1000s of rockets fired at Israel, most are not targeted by the Iron Dome because they are deemed not a threat to critical targets;

▪️Production rates for Iron Dome interceptors are likely sufficient for all future scenarios of this manner;

▪️However, should 100s or even 1000s of cheap but effective precision guided rockets/missiles/drones be used in future conflicts, the Iron Dome will likely face depletion;

▪️A strategic shift would require Hezbollah and its allies to produce more precision guided weapons than US-Israeli production of Iron Dome interceptors;

▪️It is almost a certainty that such production has increased faster since 2006 than US-Israeli production of Iron Dome interceptors, but it remains to be seen if it has increased enough to overwhelm Iron Dome;

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🇮🇷🇱🇧🇮🇱🇺🇸 On Why Iran Declaring War in Israel is Not Realistic

Hezbollah and Iran have defensive forces incapable of major offensive operations.

They are capable of fending off US-Israeli aggression, not stopping it militarily at its root.

They have enough military capabilites to prevent successful full scale invasions, but not to entirely deter the sort of aggression the US and Israel are engaging in at the moment.

To stop it at its root, both are playing their role in the rise of multipolarism, which in turn is undermining and displacing US primacy.

It will be a long and painful process but it is reality, not a Hollywood movie.

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