r/Investing -top scoring posts month- (🔗Reddit)Nvidia's Jaw-Dropping Earnings Report: Can It Justify Its $3.5 Trillion Valuation?Nvidia just delivered another incredible earnings report:
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$35.08 billion in revenue (+94% YoY)
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$19.31 billion in net income ➡️
Data center revenue surged 112% YoY to $30.8 billion But despite these results, Nvidia’s stock has barely moved, even dipping 2.51% this morning. This raises a key question:
Can Nvidia justify its $3.5 trillion market cap? Breaking It Down: To support such a valuation, Nvidia would likely need to achieve
$175–$200 billion in annual net income (assuming a P/E ratio of 20, standard for mature tech companies). Right now, its theoretical annualized net income (based on Q3) is around
$77 billion, meaning Nvidia would need to
more than double its profits to justify its valuation.
Why the Market Is Cautious: As Howard Marks said:
“Trees don’t grow to the sky, and few things go to zero.” Nvidia’s growth has been extraordinary, but the reality is that sustaining this momentum is a monumental challenge. Some have even compared the current
AI boom to the dot-com bubble, but there’s one critical difference:
Earnings. - During the dot-com era, valuations were fueled by hype, often with little to no revenue.
- Nvidia, on the other hand, is generating
real, record-breaking profits driven by demand for its AI and data center solutions.
Challenges Ahead: 1️⃣
Valuation Pressure: Can Nvidia keep up this growth to align with its high P/E ratio?
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Macro Risks: Geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates could weigh on demand.
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AI’s Long-Term Curve: Is this explosive growth sustainable, or will it normalize over time?
Final Thoughts: So, is Nvidia’s valuation a bet on the inevitability of AI, or are we starting to see cracks in the narrative? To justify its $3.5 trillion valuation, Nvidia must achieve
earnings growth that rivals the most transformative companies in history. What do you think? Is this the next era of sustained innovation, or is Nvidia’s valuation pricing in too much optimism?
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please do your own research or consult with a professional before making investment decisions.