CryptoFrog's Gems 💎🐸

Here’s something to keep in mind during this correction… 👀

The chart above us shows the amount of positive vs negative commentary about Bitcoin across all social media platforms. As we can see, it’s clear that the large majority of people are BEARISH, and there is more FUD than ever.

The only other times we have seen these levels of negativity were back when Bitcoin dipped to the low 50k region. Both times we saw a strong bounce back, which could be playing out right now too.

Remember that markets tend to do the opposite of what the masses think. It goes back to Warren Buffett’s old saying, “buy when others are fearful”… and clearly the majority of market participants are shaking in their boots.

There’s always the chance we see a further continuation to the downside, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a large recovery back into ATHs for the new year. Let’s keep our chins strong and HODL through!

The SUI ecosystem including $AXOL, $LOFI, and other SUI memecoins are outperforming the market despite the red! 💧
 
SUI is holding up well above $4 sitting at $4.50 right now down just 7% on the week compared to many other L1's which are down 10-15%.
 
$AXOL has been holding up extremely well for the market conditions, even with a SUI correction, sitting right now at $50m after a pump to $65m just a couple days ago! 👑
 
$LOFI has been steadily sitting at a floor around $130-140m market cap for the past few days, with over 1 million in trading volume. For a coin that pumped very hard up to $250m, it is performing better than expected on this dip.❄️
 
$SUICY…finally seeing a small dip here after a very solid week, now at $7.5m after the dip down to $5m was eaten fast! Extremely impressed on this project, definitely keeping this one in my long-term vision. 🥶
 
$S is also holding well, sitting at $4.1m after a small dip down to $3m. Expecting this one to continue to do well and reach new highs when the market is green. 👽
 
Overall, the SUI ecosystem is saving a lot of our portfolios right now while everything else is down significantly more. I am so bullish on SUI and I can't wait to see what it can do in Q1 2025!

These dips are the best Christmas gifts you could ask for right now…👀
 
As I mentioned before, it is not uncommon to see a sell-off right before the busiest time of the year, with many fund managers and traders taking some time away from the markets and closing positions.
 
Instead of panicking and letting the red ruin your holiday season, I suggest you guys to HODL or DCA your conviction bags and be patient, and wait for the new year. The New year brings in fresh liquidity and a new sense of optimism, often bullish for crypto. 📈
 
Don’t make a habit of checking charts every 10 minutes during a downtrend, you will only be hurting yourself. Spend time with loved ones and enjoy the holiday break!
 
I am more than confident that we will see the markets pump again in Q1 of 2025, just look at last year, January-March saw a LOT of green. No doubts that this will be the case again this year. 🐸

🦑Squid Game 🦑| Project Review
 
✅Overview
$Squid is a new SOL memecoin based off the famous Netflix thriller "Squid Games", that blew up in 2021. The series was the most popular Netflix show ever, with their season 2 releasing next week.
 
$Squid aims to be the top catalyst for the series on the Solana blockchain, already reaching millions before the new season has come out. Dev has a solid previous project portfolio and is looking to take this further. 👀
 
📄Tokenomics (Supply - 1B)
Tax - 0/0 | CA Renounced
 
🔒Analysis
I like the narrative and timing of this launch, with season 2 coming out in less than a week. I originally mentioned these guys on my twitter at a 900k market cap, giving buyers a solid 5.5x at $5M ATH. On a dip now at $2.4M, DYOR!

https://x.com/CryptoFrogCalls/status/1867635395694821618
 
🦅Chart | 🌐Website | ✈️Telegram

Bitcoin just closed a very bullish daily candle, wicking all the way down to 92k, and closing back above 97k. 💰

This show clear buy pressure at prices under the 96-97k range. This a clear sign that bullish strength is still in the markets, and from here the market is now seeing bullish momentum.

There’s a good chance that we mover higher here into the 100k range. 📈

One of the things will be watching for is volume, as a strong push above 100k with high trading volume would signal for sustained momentum. I will also be looking at key resistence zones beyond 100k, ($101-105k range) which may see some profit taking.

Overall, closing near the day's high is a good sign of renewed confidence. This could pave the way for BTC to reclaim the psychological 100k range soon. 👀

🐿️$SQRL🐿️| Project Review
 
✅ Overview
$SQRL is a SOL based memecoin and also the first swap to earn DEX! The DEX is called “squirrel swap”, and holders can stake their $SQRL and earn SOL every time they use the swap!

Not only can you earn SOL, but the team also uses fees for buyback and burns, as well as donations! Every cool and unique narrative here!

📄 Tokenomics (Supply - 1B)
Tax - 0/0 | LP Burnt | Ca Renounced
 
🔒 Analysis
I really like the branding here, a cute squirrel themed swap that has a REAL use case. I also like that it was a 100% fair launch. The team is cooking up a lot here.

The chart looks amazing. An absolutely huge god candle today hitting an ATH of 3.2m market cap! Volume is starting to look strong too. Currently near ATH at 2.9m. DYOR.

🦅Chart | 🌐Website | ✈️Telegram

Was this dip expected? 🤔
 
Looking seasonality and comparing the current market to last new cycles, we begin to identify certain patterns.
 
Time of Year 🗓
 
During the holiday season, investors can expect lower liquidity, less volume, and overall less activity in the markets as a whole.
 
Why? Investors and traders, like everyone else, have lives, plans, and traditions they like to spend at home with their loved ones. Typically fund managers and investors will close positions, similar to how schools, offices, and facilities close for 1-2 weeks from the middle of December to the new year.
 
Tax Loss Harvesting 🛡
 
This is a strategy used by investors to offset or reduce capital gains owed by selling profitable investments. This is done by selling an asset at a net loss, then using proceedings from a sale to purchase a similar asset and maintain the position.
 
For example: An investor purchases BTC and recognizes a $5000 gain, but sells ETH for a $3000 loss, which would make them being for taxes on $2000 gain instead of a $5000 gain.
 
It is common for investors to do this towards the end of the year, where we are right now, before tax deadlines. Due to increased selling pressure, the market can (and has) seen a downtrend right around the end of the year.
 
New year brings in New Money 💲
 
Historically, January has seen upwards price movement due to a few factors…
 
⁃ Traders re-investing their positions post-tax-loss harvesting in the same or similar assets.
 
⁃ People are back at work and trading continues as normal, driving liquidity and volume back up.
 
⁃ Institutions may re-open positions in January due to refreshed capital allocations.
 
⁃ Retail investors may deploy extra cash from bonuses, year-end savings, etc into the markets.
 
⁃ A new sense of optimism and a fresh, new year will often bring positive sentiment.
 
I think we will have a few weeks of negative or consolidating price action for the remainder of 2024. However, in no way do I think this is the top. HODL and DCA your bags, spend time with family and friends during the holidays, and don't panic sell your positions. There is still light at the end of the tunnel, Q1 will treat us well! 🤝

The fed cut interest rates by 25b bps yesterday, so WHY are markets nuking?...

Although rate cuts tend to be bullish for risk assets like bitcoin, this market crash has a lot less to do with the actual rate cut itself and more to do with the feds outlook in 2025.

The markets had pretty much priced in another 3-4 rate cuts to happen in 2025 as the fed was expecting. Yesterday, the fed shook up the pot by announcing they will be likely be more hawkish in 2025, with only 2 rate cuts. THIS is what the markets had reacted over, not the 25 bps cut itself. Markets are forward looking and tend to react to what will happen in the future, and the fed cutting less is bearish for the markets as a whole.

Risk assets performed poorly on this news. We saw the DXY hit yearly ATHs, while watching the DOW, S&P, and other indices have historically bad days. Crypto has also underperformed, having bitcoin drop over 10% from its ATHs while many alts experienced 20%+ pullbacks.

Now does this mean the bullrun is over? I don’t believe so. Although the economy is in a transitionary period, I am confident enough in the narratives of this bullrun to keep pushing us higher for a few more months. Short term with the upcoming inflation news and low liquidity during the holidays we may experience some volatility, but don't think this is the end. See this moment as a blessing for being able to buy crypto for less and keep HODLING. 🫡

With the FOMC meeting coming tomorrow, I've been looking at some of the potential outcomes…🤔
 
Tomorrow is the last FOMC meeting before Donald Trump takes office in just a few weeks. Economists are predicting that a 25 point basis cut will take place, making for the third consecutive cut.
 
Markets have already priced in the 25 point cut, leaving investors to look out for statements and projections from Chair Jerome Powell for insight on where future monetary policy may be headed. However, the FED could also take other actions outside of this, which would affect the crypto markets in different ways.
 
What does this mean for Bitcoin? 💰
 
Bitcoin just hit $108k, yet another ATH, and it is important to recognize the implications on the price and movement of BTC from the Fed's interest rate decision.
 
In the Case of a 25 Basis Point Cut:
 
Our base case scenario. Since this outcome has already been priced in, the short-term impact will probably not be significant.
 
50 Basis Point Cut:
 
We could see a 50 basis point cut, which would result in a very strong rally and positive price action, since lower rates promote bank lending and the purchase of risk-on assets. 📈
 
In the Case of No Cut:
 
Most bearish scenario here. Less liquidity flow is the likely outcome, as investors have less of an incentive to buy or hold Bitcoin with a stronger dollar. We would likely see a large correction in the markets. 📉

My Stance:
 
I think that the Fed will go through with a 25 basis point reduction, as expected, and we might see some near-term volatility at the announcement, but in general everything should stay the same.I think it is unlikely we see anything more than 25, and I highly doubt the Fed will take no action at all.
 
I think 25 basis points is the best case, with momentum high and more and more adoption coming to cryptocurrency every single day. Let me know what you guys think down below 👇

$OCTO just hit $30M! 📈
 
Called these guys at a $14M Mcap about a month ago, and after bouncing between $10-15M for a few weeks, we are finally seeing a breakout! Shared this one into my Alpha Chat at launch, giving the Alphas solid 10-20x's depending on entry.
 
Recall that this is a SOL utility token, offering users the ability to launch tokens with ease. Some of their unique features including wallet creation, pricing, and market analysis. 👀
 
The team ran a 9 figure project (Solchat), which we called back in February pre-launch, hitting $200M Mcap! Second time working with these guys now, excited to see where they will take $OCTO.
 
Volume is starting to pick up here at around 2 million, looking great alongside that GOD candle. I am expecting the team to use the momentum to keep building! $24m now. 🚀

$S has been COOKING recently!

Sui projects have clearly been outperforming the markets recently, and $S is no different. Hitting an ATH of $10m Mcap today! That’s a 100x for my alphas who got in at a $100k Mcap… 📈

AI memes are still bigger than ever and since this is the first one on Sui, there is a LOT of potential to see some more moves to the upside from here. Volume has been strong for the Sui chain and price action looks great!

They are adding new features for their community like AI whale wallet tracking and copy trading. I’m excited to see this team keep building. 👀

$AXOL hit an $80m Mcap 🤯
 
Called back in September at launch around 590k Mcap, this has delivered an ENORMOUS 135x from our "Degens Channel" post, and an even bigger 178x from the CryptoPond shill at $450k.
 
Easily one of the best communities I've ever seen, with an absolute mastermind Keith behind it all, not to mention the rest of the team KILLING it with the exchanges, spaces, artwork, game, and more.
 
$AXOL has a TON of room to grow. With Phantom integration confirmed and soon to come, I think we are still early on $AXOL and the SUI ecosystem as a whole. What other new chain is doing it like SUI right now?
 
Our channel has been on TOP of the SUI ecosystem and memecoins, with several other runners cooking up huge X's for us including $LOFI (#1 by market cap on SUI), $Suicy (mascot of SUI chain), and $Agent S (50x cooker called just earlier this week). Out of all of these, $AXOL has always been, and continues to be my favorite and highest-conviction play.
 
I know a lot of you guys are up BIG right now, so I am asking to please send your PnL's down below in the comments for us to gather, and you may have a shot at being featured on our @FrogInsider Instagram page! GG's to those of you who are holding, raiding, and being an active part of our community, we know who you are. The dip just got EATEN, $76m now!

Agent S has been KILLING it so far! Called these guys at a $100k Mcap in my Alpha Chat, giving the Alphas a solid 40x at ATH! 📈
 
Some consolidation after hitting $4m, but the chart looks prime for the next leg up. The team is also coming out with a new feature to allow you to be able to track top wallets, in order to replicate the transactions of whales!
 
They are adding support for all chains, and with complete telegram integration, everyone will be able to use this feature. 👀
 
We have been killing it with all of our calls on the SUI chain, now with this one reaching a 40x! Could see more numbers here, $2.7m!

https://t.me/agentS_portal