The alpha is the 1945-51 parallel: Fed pegged yields low to help Treasury manage postwar debt via financial repression (negative real rates eroding liabilities).
Bessent’s TGA-funded buybacks suppress long yields similarly. If Warsh signals coordination instead of resistance (pre-Accord Fed pushback), fiscal dominance locks in. Hard assets like $BTC and gold historically reprice higher as the store-of-value trade against debasement accelerates.
That’s the signal for the regime shift.
Bessent’s TGA-funded buybacks suppress long yields similarly. If Warsh signals coordination instead of resistance (pre-Accord Fed pushback), fiscal dominance locks in. Hard assets like $BTC and gold historically reprice higher as the store-of-value trade against debasement accelerates.
That’s the signal for the regime shift.