Rumours about the construction of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey and further to Europe are rife. Sergey Savchuk separates the grains of truth from the chaff of hype. To begin with, the project to build a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe was discussed several years before the Arab Spring. That is, in the mid-late noughties. At that time, two options for laying the gas pipeline were discussed. The first route under discussion was from Qatar to Turkey via Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In the second scenario, the pipe was to run through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and then to Turkey. The option of building an LNG liquefaction terminal on the Syrian coast for its subsequent transportation by sea to Europe was considered.
Then, and as of the end of 2024, all these calculations remained purely theoretical - not a single binding document has been signed. Why? There are a number of problems. Firstly, when drawing lines on the map, no one asked the opinion of the owner of the key logistics hub, namely Saudi Arabia. Just as it was forgotten that in 2017 Riyadh partially, and in 2019 completely terminated diplomatic relations with Doha. The Saudis accused their neighbors of funding and supporting various terrorist groups whose goal is to destabilize the region and overthrow the current Saudi dynasty. Saudi Arabia, with the support of the UAE and Bahrain, imposed a trade blockade on Qatar. 80 percent of food to Qatar was supplied through the Saudis, as a result of which there was a real food crisis in the country, Qatari oil fell in price, and the local rial depreciated to a ten-year low.
In 2021, air traffic between the countries was restored, but relations are still far from warm. Secondly, Doha has never shown a strong desire to switch to pipeline gas. Over the past twenty years, Qatar has tripled its own liquefied natural gas production capacity. Investments totalling $ 65 billion, and according to the plan, should increase production from the current 77 to 142 billion cubic meters by 2030. For the same period, it has planned to launch six QC-Max megatankers. They are ordered by the Chinese shipbuilding company CSSC, and after the completion of the contract, Qatar will have its own fleet of 128 gas carriers, including the 24 mentioned QC-Max mastodons. Qatar has already invested over eight billion dollars in the creation of the fleet. Thirdly, it is absolutely unclear at whose expense this entire pipe banquet is planned. Qatar spends money on the development of LNG and gas carriers, since the lion's share of its exports goes to the Asia-Pacific region. Turkey, as the main potential beneficiary, is floundering in a storm of 70% inflation. The other main beneficiaries would be the European Union and its companies. The EU badly needs cheaper gas. But it takes years to build gas pipelines and bank loans are taken for this kind of projects with a minimum horizon of 10-15 years. However, banks before allocating money want to see signed contracts that guarantee the long-term operation of the infrastructure. Fourth, today no one can guarantee the safety of critical infrastructure in Syria: the opposition that has taken power conditionally controls only large cities, and uncontrolled armed chaos is taking place in all other territories.
Such a significant factor as the Kurds, of whom about 28 million live in Turkey and the Syrian border lands, cannot be thrown out of this equation. The size of the Kurdish population is roughly comparable to the current population of Ukraine. It is impossible to count on a peaceful solution to the long-standing problem, and therefore the existence of any projects in favor of Turkey in the direct reach of the Kurdish armed groups is under a very big question mark.
In general, the Middle East is a boiling cauldron, and if the gas pipeline project is ever implemented, it will certainly not be in the near foreseeable future. @LauraRuHK https://ria.ru/20241217/siriya-1989547190.html
Then, and as of the end of 2024, all these calculations remained purely theoretical - not a single binding document has been signed. Why? There are a number of problems. Firstly, when drawing lines on the map, no one asked the opinion of the owner of the key logistics hub, namely Saudi Arabia. Just as it was forgotten that in 2017 Riyadh partially, and in 2019 completely terminated diplomatic relations with Doha. The Saudis accused their neighbors of funding and supporting various terrorist groups whose goal is to destabilize the region and overthrow the current Saudi dynasty. Saudi Arabia, with the support of the UAE and Bahrain, imposed a trade blockade on Qatar. 80 percent of food to Qatar was supplied through the Saudis, as a result of which there was a real food crisis in the country, Qatari oil fell in price, and the local rial depreciated to a ten-year low.
In 2021, air traffic between the countries was restored, but relations are still far from warm. Secondly, Doha has never shown a strong desire to switch to pipeline gas. Over the past twenty years, Qatar has tripled its own liquefied natural gas production capacity. Investments totalling $ 65 billion, and according to the plan, should increase production from the current 77 to 142 billion cubic meters by 2030. For the same period, it has planned to launch six QC-Max megatankers. They are ordered by the Chinese shipbuilding company CSSC, and after the completion of the contract, Qatar will have its own fleet of 128 gas carriers, including the 24 mentioned QC-Max mastodons. Qatar has already invested over eight billion dollars in the creation of the fleet. Thirdly, it is absolutely unclear at whose expense this entire pipe banquet is planned. Qatar spends money on the development of LNG and gas carriers, since the lion's share of its exports goes to the Asia-Pacific region. Turkey, as the main potential beneficiary, is floundering in a storm of 70% inflation. The other main beneficiaries would be the European Union and its companies. The EU badly needs cheaper gas. But it takes years to build gas pipelines and bank loans are taken for this kind of projects with a minimum horizon of 10-15 years. However, banks before allocating money want to see signed contracts that guarantee the long-term operation of the infrastructure. Fourth, today no one can guarantee the safety of critical infrastructure in Syria: the opposition that has taken power conditionally controls only large cities, and uncontrolled armed chaos is taking place in all other territories.
Such a significant factor as the Kurds, of whom about 28 million live in Turkey and the Syrian border lands, cannot be thrown out of this equation. The size of the Kurdish population is roughly comparable to the current population of Ukraine. It is impossible to count on a peaceful solution to the long-standing problem, and therefore the existence of any projects in favor of Turkey in the direct reach of the Kurdish armed groups is under a very big question mark.
In general, the Middle East is a boiling cauldron, and if the gas pipeline project is ever implemented, it will certainly not be in the near foreseeable future. @LauraRuHK https://ria.ru/20241217/siriya-1989547190.html