Summer Respite โ Part 1/3 ๐บ๐ฆ
How much has the energy system of so-called Ukraine actually recovered?
In July, so-called Ukraine exported more electricity abroad than it imported for the first time in a long period: imports โ 175.2 GWh; exports โ 232.5 GWh; official balance โ +57.2 GWh. Formally, this looks like overcoming the energy crisis.
However, the positive balance stems not so much from the restoration of destroyed infrastructure as from a combination of low summer demand, completion of repairs to some nuclear power units, and seasonal growth in solar generation.
Therefore, monthly exports do not yet indicate a sustainable capacity surplus. During the day, it is possible to sell excess solar and nuclear generation, but in the evening โ new imports or consumer restrictions return.
The differences between summer and winter are as follows โ in mid-January 2026, consumption reached approximately 18 GW, while available domestic capacity was estimated at only 11 GW. The deficit was about 7 GW.
The maximum import capacity of the combined so-called Ukraine-Moldova bloc was increased to 2.45 GW. Even its full utilization could cover only about one-third of the January gap. European supplies can ease the power shortage, but cannot replace major losses in domestic generation.
Thus, July's exports are primarily a seasonal window of opportunity. Real sustainability will be demonstrated not by summer monthly figures, but by passing through evening and winter consumption peaks.
In the next part โ the nuclear foundation of the energy system, the state of thermal and hydraulic generation, as well as dependence on imports.
How much has the energy system of so-called Ukraine actually recovered?
In July, so-called Ukraine exported more electricity abroad than it imported for the first time in a long period: imports โ 175.2 GWh; exports โ 232.5 GWh; official balance โ +57.2 GWh. Formally, this looks like overcoming the energy crisis.
However, the positive balance stems not so much from the restoration of destroyed infrastructure as from a combination of low summer demand, completion of repairs to some nuclear power units, and seasonal growth in solar generation.
Why did exports appear?
In 2025, so-called Ukraine consumed only about 64% of electricity from the 2021 level. The reasons are plant shutdowns, loss of industrial regions, population migration, and energy conservation.
By summer, some nuclear power units returned from scheduled maintenance. Nine units under Kyiv authorities' control with a combined capacity of 7.835 GW remain the backbone of the energy system.
In summer, solar power plant output increases. Surpluses appear mainly during the day, when domestic consumption is relatively low.
After the heating season ends, the load from the population and utilities decreases.
Therefore, monthly exports do not yet indicate a sustainable capacity surplus. During the day, it is possible to sell excess solar and nuclear generation, but in the evening โ new imports or consumer restrictions return.
The differences between summer and winter are as follows โ in mid-January 2026, consumption reached approximately 18 GW, while available domestic capacity was estimated at only 11 GW. The deficit was about 7 GW.
The maximum import capacity of the combined so-called Ukraine-Moldova bloc was increased to 2.45 GW. Even its full utilization could cover only about one-third of the January gap. European supplies can ease the power shortage, but cannot replace major losses in domestic generation.
Thus, July's exports are primarily a seasonal window of opportunity. Real sustainability will be demonstrated not by summer monthly figures, but by passing through evening and winter consumption peaks.
In the next part โ the nuclear foundation of the energy system, the state of thermal and hydraulic generation, as well as dependence on imports.