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🇧🇷 Brazil heads to a presidential runoff

Yesterday, October 4, Brazil held general elections. We have prepared a short analysis of the main results, the new balance of forces in Congress, and what to watch ahead of the presidential runoff.

Brazil held general elections on October 4. Voters simultaneously elected the president, members of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, as well as state governors and members of state legislatures. The main outcome was the unexpected first-round lead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

After the ballots were counted, Flávio Bolsonaro received 47% of the vote, while incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured 45%. The gap between the two candidates was around 2.2 million votes. The runoff will take place on October 25.

The result came as a surprise. Most pre-election polls had given Lula a narrow lead. Bolsonaro, however, finished just three percentage points short of winning the election outright in the first round.

Another important outcome was the significant strengthening of right-wing forces in both chambers of Brazil’s Congress. The Liberal Party (PL) secured the largest bloc in the Chamber of Deputies, winning 121 of 513 seats — 24 more than in the 2022 elections. The federation led by Lula’s Workers’ Party won 82 seats. Following the Senate elections, the Liberal Party is also set to become the largest group in the upper chamber, holding 28 of 81 Senate seats.

According to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), voting proceeded normally, with no major problems capable of affecting the conduct of the election. 62 representatives from 26 countries observed various stages of the voting process and the verification of electronic voting machines.

The main question now is whether Lula can mobilize enough additional support ahead of October 25 to win the presidency for a fourth time, or whether Flávio Bolsonaro will become Brazil’s next president.

✍️ Author: Ivan Bubnov, Expert at the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation


🔥 September in Focus — #CIIC_digest

September brought a number of important developments across the international and electoral agenda. Parliamentary elections, changes in political representation, preparations for upcoming votes, and major multilateral meetings all shaped the month.

🌏 In this edition of #CIIC_digest, we highlight six key developments from September — from the State Duma elections in Russia and the UN General Assembly High-Level Week to electoral processes in Sweden, Morocco, Brazil, and France.

Swipe through the cards for the key facts and figures.


How are international decisions really made, and what happens behind closed doors during negotiations?

😌 Our colleagues at the Alexander Gorchakov Public Diplomacy Fund (the Gorchakov Fund) have opened applications for the scientific and educational program “The Dialogue for the Future — 2026”, which will take place in Moscow on November 24–28.

This year, participants will have an opportunity to look at diplomacy from the inside: meet diplomats and experts, take part in discussions and master classes, and test their skills in a simulation game.

The program will focus on issues that directly shape the practice of international relations today:
📍 international institutions in times of uncertainty;
📍 mechanisms for reaching international agreements;
📍 the role of interpretation, media, and information in negotiation processes;
📍 the Russian diplomatic tradition and its influence on contemporary diplomacy.

The program is open to young professionals aged 23 to 35 working in international relations, political science, and economics.
The working languages are Russian and English.

📅 November 24–28, 2026
📍 Moscow
⏰ Applications are open until October 20, 11:59 p.m. Moscow time.
To apply, register on the English-language version of the Gorchakov Fund website, select “The Dialogue for the Future — 2026” in the My Projects section, complete the application form, and submit the video assignment.

The organizers will cover round-trip travel expenses to Moscow for the authors of the three best applications.
🔗 Apply on the Gorchakov Fund website
✉️ For questions about participation: dialogueforthefuture@gorchakovfund.ru

We recommend this program to everyone working with the international agenda who would like to gain a deeper understanding of the practical side of diplomacy and international negotiations.


🌍 IAPEE Welcomes 14 New Members from 14 Countries

On September 15, members of the International Association of Political and Electoral Expertise (IAPEE) came together once again at the International Festival of Youth. Experts, researchers, and public figures from different countries met to discuss political systems, elections and international observation.

For us, it is especially important that the Association continues to develop as a professional international platform where representatives of different political and expert traditions can exchange experience, discuss current developments and contribute to new approaches in political and electoral expertise.

The key event was a presentation of the International Association of Political and Electoral Expertise. Vito Grittani, Chair of IAPEE, diplomat,and founder of the International Diplomatic Observatory, spoke about the Association’s principles, activities and future plans.

Vito Grittani:
“Our goal is to create a professional platform where experts from different countries can exchange experience, discuss observation methodologies, and jointly develop new approaches. IAPEE is built on cooperation, respect for national specificities, and professional dialogue.”


🤝 The meeting concluded with a ceremony welcoming new members to IAPEE. Representatives of 15 countries joined the Association, bringing new professional and regional perspectives to its international community.

🌏 The ceremony was led by Areg Agasaryan, Head of our Center and Member of the IAPEE Governing Council.

Areg Agasaryan:

“IAPEE is developing into an international professional community capable of preparing a new generation of experts. We want membership in the Association to mean active participation in missions, research, expert discussions, and professional cooperation.”


For the Association, expanding its membership means bringing together specialists with different professional backgrounds and experience, strengthening international dialogue, and developing a network of experts ready to contribute to political and electoral expertise.

✨ IAPEE continues to grow — and so does the international community united by professional dialogue on elections and political processes. 🌐




💬 International Observation, Practical Training and Electoral Expertise

Another day of the “Open Elections” Program focused on international election observation, the practical work of experts at polling stations, and modern approaches to assessing electoral systems.

🌍 The central event of the day was a lecture by Sebastián López Calendino, Director of the Center for Electoral and Political-Institutional Studies at the Faculty of Legal and Social Sciences of the National University of La Plata in Argentina, entitled “Independent International Election Observation and Electoral Expertise in the Modern World.”

Calendino spoke about the role of independent expertise in contemporary electoral processes, the principles guiding international observers, and the importance of professional dialogue among specialists from different countries. For us, it is especially important to introduce young experts to different national and professional approaches to election observation and give them an opportunity to discuss these issues directly with experienced international practitioners.

“An international election observer does not steer any country’s ship. We do not choose its candidates, write its laws, or decide its future. Our task is to shine a light: to observe carefully, with method and honesty, and report what we actually saw.”


☑️ The practical part of the day focused on the working procedures of international observers and experts when visiting polling stations in Russia. Alexey Peskov, Executive Director of the Independent Public Monitoring Association, and Ilya Rudenko, Chair of the “For Clean Elections” Corps, guided participants through the monitoring checklist and the key aspects of an observer’s work directly at a polling station.

🎓 The Program concluded with a presentation of the Russian model of electoral rating by Vladimir Lukushin, Deputy Dean for Research at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Mass Communications of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

For us, it is important that every day of “Open Elections” gradually expands the participants’ professional toolkit — from understanding the principles of international observation to applying specific methods of analysis, monitoring, and professional assessment of electoral processes.


🤩 “Horizons of Opportunity”: Meeting Again

At the International Festival of Youth – 2026, participants of the first season “Horizons of Opportunity” Program came together once again.

🌏 For us at the Center for International Interaction and Cooperation (CIIC), it is especially important that the end of the educational stage does not mean the end of communication between participants. “Horizons of Opportunity” brings together a community of alumni, where connections made during the Program can grow into professional partnerships, joint projects, and new forms of international cooperation.

And this work continues. A new season joined the Program in 2026, and the new season is already well underway. The online stage has been completed, participants have presented their final projects, and the Regional Stage will begin in October in several Russian cities. “Horizons of Opportunity” is designed primarily for international students studying at Russian universities — young professionals who want to build their careers in Russia or continue cooperating with our country after returning home.

📚 Participants develop their skills across three areas: international economics and entrepreneurship, international relations and the humanities, and international humanitarian cooperation. The Program combines expert-led learning, practical cases, project work, professional skills development, and new opportunities for future career growth.

For us, the purpose of “Horizons of Opportunity” goes beyond a single educational course. We want international students at Russian universities to gain practical tools for their professional development, a better understanding of the opportunities that cooperation with Russia can offer, and lasting connections that can develop into new joint projects after graduation.

The meeting of the 2025 alumni is a good example of how “Horizons of Opportunity” continues long after the Program itself. And for the 2026 participants, the journey is only gaining momentum. 🚀


🏛️ “Open Elections”: Exploring Russia’s Electoral System

On September 13, one of the key events of the “Open Elections” Program at the International Festival of Youth – 2026 was an address by Ella Pamfilova, Chairperson of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

She spoke to the Program participants, shared her perspective on the importance of a professional approach to electoral processes, and offered words of encouragement to the young experts ahead of the next stages of their work.

The single voting day in Russia is a concentration of the electoral activity of our citizens. Many of you will witness this event as part of the festival’s regional program.
Currently, the country’s electoral sovereignty determines its independence and strength, its ability to pursue its own course. Russia has the necessary set of electoral standards for this.


For us, it is important that participants gain a professional understanding of electoral procedures in Russia and of how election commissions and the observation system operate.

On the same day, we held two more educational events together with the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

🔊 Pavel Andreev, Member of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation, delivered a lecture entitled “National Specifics: the Electoral Process and Election Observation in the Russian Federation, and the 2026 Election to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.” Participants discussed the organization of voting, the work of election commissions, and election observation mechanisms.

⚪️ The Program then continued with the business debate “Elections of the Future,” focused on the development of electoral technologies and the future transformation of electoral processes.

Following the Festival stage, participants will continue their work across Russian regions, where they will study the organizational, legal, and procedural aspects of voting and interact with election commissions.

❗️For us, it is important that “Open Elections” helps build an international community of young professionals capable of working professionally and objectively on elections and election observation.

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