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Sorry for the two week "hiatus" (wasn't really a hiatus). Just been working on this project non-stop because I'm really close to actually doing this and that's exciting.

All the credit goes to the people that have paved the way before me whether by virtue of helping establish or solidify certain open source communities. Same goes for those that have been in direct contact and contributed resource in any way, shape or form.

Really at peace with this because this is something that's going to be a legitimate benefit to people in this space. No doubt about it.


Nice time for folks to go on a shopping trip.

Another futures expiry today for the BlackRock spot Bitcoin options ETF.




Extreme Alpha Today

There were some people that were complaining like a week or so ago about there not being enough substantive information thrown in this channel and, after taking some time to think about the scathing criticism...I actually am inclined to agree with them.

There are definitely much deeper insights that can be gleaned from the markets that I have simply not thrown in here yet. So I'm going to make sure that I get a move on doing so right now.

Starting with Bitcoin. Give me a second. But I'm extremely bullish on Bitcoin right now due to the looming expiry of the first batch of options contracts for the spot Bitcoin options ETF (issued by BlackRock).

We're going to take a look at a few charts, break down the share prices, their equivalent value in Bitcoin, dissect a few important terms, explore what the market's metrics are telling us about Bitcoin's current state in the markets and the positions that institutional investors have taken on Bitcoin (which we're going to determine by deriving puts v. calls at certain strike prices).


Remember what I wrote about options traders being short at $100k! I noted that a possible break above this level could result in a price run as shorts are forced to buy up more spot Bitcoin to cover positions and market makers have to start selling calls to offset potential negative gamma. This can create a price feedback loop that shoots the volatility up!

Curious to see how this plays out!


Sorry I’m late - feels like New Year’s right?


Forward from: Watcher Guru
BREAKING: $100,000 Bitcoin

@Bitcoin_Price


Created a Mock Portfolio

This portfolio has all of the aforementioned assets. Did some balancing and re-weighting on my own with some math on the backend. Going to be making various trades from it over time. Started with an imaginary value of $900k that was all invested into these assets back on November 14th, 2024 (that's when all of this called; although, honestly much of it way before then).

Since then, the portfolio (entirely) is up >100% in that span. Dumped off half the XRP to have that held in cash and will figure out where to re-allocate that in the future going forward.

You can check out the public link to that portfolio here if you're curious: https://cryptorank.io/portfolio/03d6a4c381fb?type=manual

Just looking to help somebody out with these things before we get back to the research in here! Go ahead and get your money while you can in these markets.


Grayscale Portfolio Companies Kicking Ass


Barry Silbert will not allow these projects to fail. In the last 24 hours alone we got $MANA up 19.3%, STACKS up 18.1%, Bittensor up 15.8%, Filecoin up 15.6%, $BAT up 12.65 and Livelier up 12.3%.

Really can't go wrong grabbing a basket of these projects (didn't even include Ethereum or Bitcoin in this mini-index we created). I'll see if I can't get a mock portfolio up of just these projects and track its P/L over time.


Learning How to do the Math


Okay, so if you're bummed out you missed on the pump - a skill in this space is learning to make implicit connections.

We saw $BNB go crazy yesterday for some reason when it was pumping - so common sense says, "Let's see what's going on in the Binance ecosystem as a whole."


Binance Projects All Pumping

Not sure what to make of the Binance ecosystem. They got their asses kicked by the DOJ earlier this year and then CZ got locked up (this channel said that was going to happen for years; just keyword search Binance in here if you want to find any of those posts).

That aside - here's a quick look at the performance of their portfolio projects.

https://cryptorank.io/funds/binance-labs/portfolio?sort=change_24h&direction=desc


Why Grayscale's Filing is More Significant

They need this vehicle to convert their Trust. Those shares are currently trading at a 105% premium to the NAV.

https://ycharts.com/companies/GSOL/discount_or_premium_to_nav

A smart person with the Shares might try to short them. But if Solana rises above what the market price of those shares are at this second, that's still a loss.

Not sure what the applicable play would really be here. I guess as an investor, best option would be to grab up a bunch of the GSOL shares since you can't really lose out on them. The shares are restricted (locked) for 6 months from purchase time. I doubt the ETF will be approved by then since the SEC typically punts on these decisions on the first deadline.

Very possible the premium could still be there. Even if it isn't, if the price of Solana is up, the shares are profitable since they likely won't go into a deficit.


Forward from: Watcher Guru
JUST IN: Grayscale files for Solana $SOL ETF with NYSE.

@WatcherGuru


So is the Party Over? Fuck No! It just started


My hope is that these messages will release someone reading them from the prison of investing in memecoin scams. Because you’re honestly missing out on other major opportunities for enormous gains in projects that weren’t considered gambles at all.

Take XRP for instance. I’m not an insider by any means. It’s been in existence since like 2014/2015. It’s available on every exchange in this space and extremely obtainable. The news fueling its pump was very public and the correlations were obvious. The markets backing the token are liquid enough for you to buy / sell however much you need to unless you’re Brad Garlinghouse himself.

From the time we mentioned it to now, it’s done a full 100%+. Even if you missed the height of the pump to now, you should still be in profit to the tune of 80-100%. It’s not like you had to keep running to check your screen every 5 seconds either. You could’ve plopped some money in it, walked away for a week or two and watched it double up. Just like that.

Stellar did a 4X from October 29th to now. Again, VERY liquid. Not a memecoin. Plenty of stops along the way where people could comfortably get on and get off.

This is where the bread and butter of a bull market is at. Simple, no-brainer coins whose fundamentals clearly align are “free money” picks in a bull market.

How Easy Was Ripple to Get?


My friend’s mom doesn’t know shit about crypto. Nothing. Just learned about Bitcoin last month. And she made money off Ripple.

Imagine that while all this is going on, you were LOSING MONEY getting rugged on Memecoins because you’re too undisciplined, greedy and/or gullible to pull out of those markets and capture the real alpha.

Don’t allow your greed to make you go broke. Because that’s what you’ll go fucking around with these memecoins. And it’s gonna make you sick for a long time if you look back at this moment in your life and realize you could’ve 3-5x’d your money EASY but you were too fucking greedy so instead you ended up losing most or ALL of it.


B-b-but You Called a Few Memecoins

I did. To show you I know what the fuck I’m talking about. I didn’t miss on one did I? And if you ever bought any of them, you’d still be in profit to this actual literal second in time if you didn’t sell yet (hopefully you did). Notice I haven’t shouted out another one for quite a while - I shifted back up to the T100.

“Wow dude you’re a hypocrite!” - No I’m not.

“Huh? Are you delusional? You just said all that about memecoins and now you’re admitting YOU called them out on your OWN channel?” - No, I’m not delusional. Yes, I did call some out on this channel. No - doing so doesn’t contradict the ethos of what I just stated above. And I’ll explain exactly why.

But How?

1. I’ve been here (posting as an entity) for nearly a decade. Next year marks year 8 of this Telegram channel. I know what the fuck is going on top to bottom in all facets of this space (in the most humble way I can say that). If you go to the beginning of this channel’s history you’re going to see it starts in November or December 2017.

2. The market mechanics behind those memecoins I directed to you were no longer being dictated by a cabal. In certain rare cases, devs launching these memecoins managed to launch something that caught fire before even they were able to rugpull everybody and they either sold prematurely or they allowed it to run. If you check the top P/L stats of most of these memecoins, you’ll see those initial creators cashed out and made millions. They no longer needed to dump on you anymore. It became a free-for-all.

3. The exposure fueling said memecoin was too astronomical to suppress. These day to day projects that pump don’t have said exposure. So the second the devs dump on you, it’s down -90% in your face. And it will dump before YOU make profit because even at the listing price on pump.fun they’re making money and they’re in profit the second the bond curve requirement is fulfilled. So they have no incentive to not dump the second it hits Raydium. Plus they snipe their own shit.

4. I personally never invested, bought, received or sold a single memecoin I mentioned due to the inherent conflict of interest. In general, I don’t trade anything I chart or recommend because it allows me to see things with the impartiality needed to be right. It dissociates me from the psychology of “wanting” any trade idea to succeed or not. Perhaps if I were invested in memecoins, I’d be reluctant to declare them dead as it would kill (what I assume would be) my hopes of them pumping and me getting rich.

Remember - Dogecoin itself is considered a “memecoin” (even though the code backing it is damn near identical to Litecoin which, itself, is a fork of Bitcoin; LTC & DOGE have the same mining algo - Scrypt). But dogecoin’s market isn’t controlled by a cabal. In these exceptional cases, sure - you could trade the token/coin if the fundamentals make sense from there.

But outside of the factors I mentioned above - memecoins are not viable.


**Edit**:
I said dogecoin’s price isn’t controlled by a “cabal”. I need to retract that as I don’t know this to be true. It just isn’t controlled by a cabal of memecoin developers that serially launch projects on Solana (to my knowledge and understanding). Doge at this point is probably under primary control of the market makers & exchanges which hold the majority of its supply. Nothing in these markets is outside of the control or thumb of major market forces. However, they don’t move as a monolith, so their competing interests can still create a seemingly “even” playing field for the small fish out there.


Debunking Memecoins Today

All the corrupt devs, money launderers and scammers are gonna hate me after today. It’s gonna be a LONG day for them.

I’m just gonna dump info in here all day long to drill home the point that memecoins are dead. There’s no more money to be made there. And with all due respect, some of us may need to take a step back and ask ourselves what it is we’re missing in our lives that’s created such an insatiable hunger for these one in a million, lottery ticket schemes.

Mental Health Self-Care


Listen, I’m not some Gen Z kid from TikTok. So I’m not going to go off on a tangent about how anybody here should “seek therapy” or some bullshit like that. BUT you do need to protect your mental state in this space. There’s a lot of wolves out here that don’t give a fuck about the fact you drowned your life savings in some investment because you believed what they were saying.

They don’t care how much you beg, whine or threaten them. They’ll laugh their way straight to the bank. Do not underestimate the psychopathy and desperation that exists in these tiny little underworld markets like pump.fun. I don’t care what private group you’re in or what kind of tools / methods you think you’ve found to “guarantee” you’ll win. You’re only fooling yourself.

You’re not going to win. Nobody you know has gotten rich off of those coins. If they did, then they were probably the mother fuckers that launched said coin. And even in THAT case, they still got lucky as all fuck. Think about that for a second - this shit is a lottery ticket even in scenarios where you’re part of the cabal launching the damn ticket.

The comments you’re reading are fake. The volume is fake. The community is fake. The dev is fake. The Telegram pages you see promoting or signaling the damn coins are also fake. All of it - fake.

If you don’t believe me, I’m going to walk down step by step how easy it would be for me (single-handedly) to craft a memecoin and make it look like you got a community, volume, buyers & holders, positive sentiment and a couple callers too with less than $500. If I’m particularly smart with my opportunism, I’d wait until some predictable event occurs and then capitalize from there (ex: Donald Trump winning).

Memes like “Chillguy” & “PNUT” are mega billions jackpot scenarios because unpredictable events occurred that boosted their value like the artist behind the “Chillguy” meme specifically calling out the memecoins launching with his artwork’s namesake and likeness on it and threatening legal action. Whether he knew it or not, he unwittingly pumped the coin to heaven with his directed threats toward the community. And, of course, like the psychopaths these scammers are - they took his (rightful) claims to copyright as an attack on their infringement and decided to respond by doubling down on the exploitation of his artwork.


Memecoins are Dead

More on this soon. If you’re still buying memecoins, you’re fucking up. Markets have cycles and that market is dying. The election was the absolute peak for the memecoin market.

I called the few out there that I knew would stick but barring some sort of strangely viral phenomenon don’t expect for memecoins to be fruitful investments. I don’t care what the charts say for any of them - you’re being genjitsu’d if you think they represent real gains that you could have gotten.


Told Yall XRP Was an "Obvious Buy"

The point of this post is not to brag about being right. I know I was right. But I want you all to read why I was right and the logic that I used to be right.

That's all encompassed in the post that I just made a reply to. I covered the reasons for why I knew XRP was going to start jumping that spanned over three different messages, then I doubled down on it just a few days later here: https://t.me/librehash/30280

1. I will never sell you on 'hype' narratives. The reason why XRP is going up has nothing to do with it conquering the SWIFT network or being "widely adopted by the banks". That's the bullshit that they use as a selling point to folks on the outside. If you believe in that marketing propaganda, you're an idiot.

2. The spark to the bullish run started when news leaked of Gensler resigning. We know the SEC has pursued an appeal of the case they lost vs. XRP challenging whether or not it was a security. With Gensler out of the way, we theorized that litigation against XRP would begin to dissipate.

3. Gensler ultimately did end up announcing his resignation (which will begin effective January 20th; same day that Trump is inaugurated, so there will be no doubt that he's in control of whomever the next pick will be).

4. XRP ETF applications have been made. SEC opposed a futures XRP ETF application in the beginning of October. This was critical because firms have been getting spot ETF approvals by relying on Rule 6d-11 to get the futures ETF approved first. Once the futures ETF has been approved, that's what cleared the way for the spot ETF to get approved under the logic that says, "Hey, if you all have deemed that the markets are stable and liquid enough to launch the futures ETF, then there's no premise to say that they aren't stable enough for a spot ETF." This principle was established via Grayscale's lawsuit vs. the SEC where they argued the denial of their spot Bitcoin ETF applications was "capricious and arbitrary". The federal judged ruled in their favor and the rest was history.

5. XRP Trust by Grayscale is once again open for redemptions. This is a little more nuanced when considering the legitimate possibility that XRP ETFs could be launched next year. That would fulfill the promise to convert their Trust to an ETF. The stated goal of all Grayscale Trust products is for the mapped asset to trade at or as close to NAV as possible.


Grayscale Trust Asset Portfolio Looking Good

Decided to take all of those assets that Grayscale has a Trust for and throw them into one portfolio.

You can access the link to that portfolio here (made it public): https://cryptorank.io/watchlist/f251094fabc5

Right now, it's banging. Market cap is up 85.6%+ over the past 30 days. This is virtually easy money at this point. Very, very liquid, highly accessible assets that you're highly, highly unlikely to see start losing 10, 20 or even 30%+.

Grated the imaginary scenario where you score a 14,345% gain on a random project and then retire rich isn't present with these assets...85% ain't a bad return over a month.


Grayscale Just Opened Up 19 of its Trusts for Investment Again

Now everything I said about XLM above suddenly becomes relevant. You can check out which 19 Trusts those are here: https://www.grayscale.com/open-private-placements

Announcement re: Trusts re-opening for investment was made by CoinSpeaker (lobbyist entity) here

The Trusts that are open for re-investment again are for: Aave, Avalanche, Basic Attention Token (BAT), Bitcoin Cash, Bittensor, Chainlink, Decentraland (MANA), Filecoin, Livepeer, MakerDAO, Near Protocol, Solana, stacks, Sui, XRP (very notable) and ZCash.

Notice how the XLM Trust was not listed there (because they already had it opened for more investment, i.e., share creation).

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