Politico

What else to know:

👉 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy removed Valery Zaluzhny as the country's military commander-in-chief — ending months of tensions between the two.

👉After calls from members of the European Parliament to sanction Tucker Carlson went viral this week, the E.U. said it isn’t planning to do so — at least not yet.

The Senate advanced an aid bill of tens of billions of dollars for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel after months of handwringing.

It still has a ways to go, with timing for final passage in limbo.

“We are going to keep working on this bill until the job is done,” said Chuck Schumer, in a not-so-subtle threat to keep his colleagues over the weekend or until the supplemental is passed in full.

Welcome to Monday. Here are three things to know to as we head into the week:

👉 Senators unveiled their long-awaited bipartisan border deal last night, which includes sending billions of dollars to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as well as the U.S-Mexico border. But it could be dead on arrival in the House (if it even makes it there).

👉 After foreign secretary David Cameron said Britain would “look at the issue of recognizing a Palestinian state,” PM Rishi Sunak downplayed the idea that U.K. policy had changed.

👉 The Pentagon isn’t planning for a long-term campaign against the Iranian military and associated proxy groups in Iraq and Syria, said the department’s top spokesperson. The comments follow recent messaging by the Biden admin that Friday’s strikes were just the first round in the U.S. response to the Jan. 28 attack in Jordan by Iran-backed militants that killed three U.S. soldiers.

Welcome to Wednesday 👋 Here are three stories to know halfway through the week:

👉Rumors are swirling that Volodymyr Zelenskyy might oust his top general. Our sources tell us the only reason it hasn’t happened yet is that the Ukraine president is afraid of creating a powerful political rival.

👉Are there more Russian spies in the European Parliament? As the chamber investigates a Latvian lawmaker, some are warning there are others like her.

👉A challenger to Vladimir Putin has submitted 105,000 signatures backing his presidential election campaign. Boris Nadezhdin should, in theory, be permitted on the ballot in March – but it’ll be a longshot.

What else to know:

👉The intensifying Red Sea conflict is threatening to ripple across the U.S. economy at the most inopportune time for Democrats and President Joe Biden — potentially nudging inflation back up just ahead of this fall’s election.

👉Senate Democrats are officially over Benjamin Netanyahu, pointing out significant problems with his handling of Israel’s war against Hamas after the October attack. While no senators called for his resignation, their comments — including from lawmakers who are normally more reserved on the issue — show how much Democratic lawmakers’ faith in the Israeli leader has eroded.

 We caught up with Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal  on Wednesday as Kyiv fights to maintain Western support in its war with Russia. A snapshot of what he said 👇

Ukraine’s fears: It’s not just flagging U.S. support that’s keeping the country awake at night. It’s also concerned with maintaining European backing. A €50 billion EU package for Ukraine has stalled since last year, after Hungary blocked it, with EU leaders meeting in Brussels next week in a last-ditch effort to get it over the line. 

Ukraine’s needs: “This money is crucially important for us,” said Shmyhal. “It will let us finance our budget [and] allow us to implement a process of rapid recovery.” (About €38 billion is earmarked for budgetary support, another €8 billion for investment projects.)

On Donald Trump: “We’ll see how conditions develop in 2025,” said Shmyhal when asked if he feared a second Trump presidency. “I believe that any president of the United States will support our fight for civilized values, our mutual values,” arguing that most American people back Ukraine.

What else you should know:

👉 President Biden invited congressional leaders to a White House meeting on months-long negotiations over funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and border security. They’re scheduled to meet on Wednesday.

👉 U.S. diplomats, who are worried about the size and intent of the big Chinese delegation in Switzerland for the World Economic Forum, are trying to arrange a meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and a Swiss official while he’s in the country.

What else to know:

Progressive lawmakers are furious at Biden for not seeking congressional approval — as cited in Article 1 of the Constitution — before launching the attacks.

It’s reigniting the long-simmering congressional battle over war powers and becoming a rare point of consensus for progressives and hardline conservatives.

The fact that Biden didn’t order the retaliatory strikes for more than a week after the Jan. 1 meeting was in line with his well-known desire to exhaust diplomatic options and avoid dragging the U.S. into another Middle East war. But the president made clear in a statement that the latest Houthi attack had crossed a line.

More inside Biden’s decision

A timeline of President Biden's decision to strike the Houthis – the first major U.S. military response to the group’s ongoing attacks on commercial ships in a critical international trade area👇

Dec. 2023: The U.S. military drew up forceful options against the Houthis as early as the first week of December. But at that point, senior Biden officials — who worried that hitting the Houthis could provoke Iran and widen the Israel-Hamas conflict into a regional war — agreed striking the group was not the best course.

Jan. 1: Biden spoke with his national security team after Iran-backed Houthis launched yet another attack on international shipping in the Red Sea. He was ready to discuss a military response, but at the same time directed his team to push for a diplomatic solution.

Jan. 3: The U.S. and 13 other countries issued a statement warning the Houthis that they would bear the full “consequences” of any further attacks. But that did little to deter the group.

Jan. 9: The Houthis launched their largest attack yet, launching drones and missiles toward U.S. commercial and military ships. This marked a turning point for U.S. officials.

Jan. 11: The U.S. and its allies launched a massive retaliatory assault against the Houthis aimed at hurting their ability to continue their attacks. The joint assault targeted radar systems, storage and launch sites for drones, cruise and ballistic missiles across “a large area of Yemen”; no civilians were assessed to be present at the sites, a Defense Dept official told us.

This has made Netanyahu reluctant to take American advice on the war. It also suggests that U.S.-Israeli tensions will grow as Palestinians struggle to survive Israel’s bombardment of the Gaza Strip.

Privately, some in President Biden’s administration are seething that Netanyahu is still leading Israel’s government, and they believe his political shelf-life is limited. But U.S. officials aren’t giving up on trying to work with him amid the crisis. So many American officials have seen or otherwise reached out to Netanyahu that some observers call it “Bibi-sitting.”

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U.S. officials have to work with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu as they try to contain the Israel-Hamas war, but some are starting to wonder if he’s really in charge.

Netanyahu is trying to stay in office and avoid prison on corruption charges, two linked desires that have long made him vulnerable to the demands of far-right members of his governing coalition. Now, an Israeli Supreme Court ruling against his effort to overhaul the judiciary may make him even more susceptible.

The far-right figures — notably ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir — have deep anti-Palestinian views and are resistant to U.S. proposals, which they consider too friendly to Palestinians. If they abandon Netanyahu’s coalition, he could lose his prime ministership.

Biden officials are creating plans for the U.S. to respond to what they’re increasingly concerned could expand from a war in Gaza to a wider conflict in the Middle East, according to four officials familiar with the matter. All were granted anonymity to tell us about sensitive, ongoing national security discussions.

The developments are perilous not just for the region but also for Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection chances. He entered office with vows to end wars. Now he’s spending the end of his first term as the West’s champion for the defense of Ukraine and a key enabler of Israel’s retaliation against Hamas.

Foreign policy isn’t expected to be the top campaign issue for voters. But still, 84% of Americans are either very or somewhat concerned that the U.S would be drawn into the Middle East conflict, according to a Quinnipiac poll in November. And with each passing month, more and more Americans fear the Biden admin is offering too much material support to Ukraine.

What else you should know:

▶ICYMI: Israel’s Supreme Court struck down a key component of Netanyahu’s contentious judicial overhaul yesterday, delivering a landmark decision that could reopen the cracks in Israeli society that were happening before the war against Hamas began.

▶An explosion in Beirut allegedly killed the top Hamas official who led their West Bank operations. If Israel was behind the attack, it could mark a major escalation in the war. (Lebanon’s state-run news agency said it was carried out by an Israeli drone, but Israeli officials declined to comment.)

▶2024 has been dubbed the biggest election year in history worldwide: there are races in 60+ countries representing half the world population. Here are the global elections Americans should know about this year.

Welcome to a new year 👋

Several members of the Senate Intelligence Committee are headed to the Middle East this week, where they plan to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

The New York Democrat said she has two goals for the trip: Find out how much of a threat Hamas still is and what it will take to eventually end the war.

For President Biden, navigating the nearly two-year-old war in the middle of a tough election campaign will prove tricky at best. Foreign policy isn’t the top 2024 issue for voters, but Biden’s handling of what’s happening in Israel and Ukraine has hurt his already low approval ratings. Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the leading GOP presidential contender, is already exploiting the perception that events overseas are spinning out of control.

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With foreign aid to Ukraine in serious jeopardy, the U.S. and E.U. are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a White House official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.

This strategic shift to defense could buy Ukraine the time it needs to eventually force Vladimir Putin into an acceptable compromise. The diplomat told us one thing that could help is the E.U.’s threat of expediting Ukraine’s membership in NATO, since Putin’s believed to be interested in a deal with Washington under which Ukraine will not enter NATO. (The Biden admin continues to maintain publicly that NATO membership is not being negotiated.)

Two other things to know:

▶ Venezuela has released 10 Americans as part of a prisoner exchange with the U.S. The deal is likely to draw protests in some corners for further incentivizing hostile governments to take Americans hostage. It’s also likely to fuel charges from Biden’s detractors that his admin is too lenient in its deals with U.S. adversaries.

▶The Senate wrapped up 2023 without action on aid for Ukraine and Israel or border security policy. While leaders Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell issued a rare joint statement touting “encouraging progress” in the talks, we won’t see further action until “early in the new year.”

Lawmakers keep calling for Israel to curb its intensive military operation in Gaza. But they’re using different — and often confusingly vague — phrasing to push for peace.

That may be the point. Vague terms make it possible for politicians to accomplish two tasks: advocate for some semblance of peace in the Middle East without completely alienating the United States’ closest ally in the region.

But the many phrases — like “sustainable cease-fire,” “mutual and permanent end to the violence,” “immediate de-escalation and cease-fire,” “mutually agreed-upon bilateral humanitarian pause” — run the risk of confusing the general public even more. These calls are complicated by the fact that there’s no internationally agreed-upon definition for a cease-fire.

Catch up with National Security Daily on why politicians keep adding caveats to “cease-fire"