#Bitcoin #CLARITY #Fed #Arc #Macro 🧾
The market spent a month buying expectations. This week the bill arrived
🟢 On September 15 the Senate failed the procedural vote: 49 for, 50 against, with 60 needed. The bill didn't even clear a simple majority. Every Democrat voted no, along with four Republicans - Collins, Hawley, Moran and Tillis.
What killed it matters. The structure itself, splitting oversight between the SEC and CFTC, drew almost no objections: Republicans took in over 120 Democratic amendments and called the text their last and final. What sank it was the ethics provision, the one covering Trump's and his family's crypto holdings. Lummis, the bill's chief champion, summed it up in two words: it's over.
The industry spent years and hundreds of millions on this framework, and the president's conflict of interest took it down.
🟢 On September 16 came a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4%, unanimous, 12 votes out of 12. First increase since July 2023. The driver is inflation, pushed along by oil above $110 after the strike on the Saudi pipeline.
The dot plot is harsher than the decision itself: 16 of 18 committee members expect another hike before year-end, and the 2027 median implies no cuts at all. Bitcoin barely flinched on the news, holding near $75.7k. But money is getting more expensive, and that is exactly the air risk assets struggle to breathe.
🟢 On September 16 Circle launched the Arc mainnet: BlackRock and Visa among the validators, 10 billion ARC minted, over $370M in USDC moved in during the first two hours. Sounds loud, but that's roughly 0.05% of all USDC, liquidity is thin, spreads are wide, and half the apps are still raw.
Clarity failed, and rates went up instead of down. The expectation didn't hold on either count. While Congress stalls, the regulators are writing the rules themselves: the SEC already has Regulation Crypto Assets on the table, comments run until October 20, and its chairman said plainly that the agency will deliver with or without legislation. The framework is coming anyway - just not from the people everyone was waiting on, and without a public vote.
➡️Crouton.digital | About us⬅️
The market spent a month buying expectations. This week the bill arrived
On August 22, when bitcoin was ripping 25%, we wrote that the move was riding on announcements rather than money, and we named what would test it: the Clarity Act vote and which way rates would go. Both closed inside three days.
🟢 On September 15 the Senate failed the procedural vote: 49 for, 50 against, with 60 needed. The bill didn't even clear a simple majority. Every Democrat voted no, along with four Republicans - Collins, Hawley, Moran and Tillis.
What killed it matters. The structure itself, splitting oversight between the SEC and CFTC, drew almost no objections: Republicans took in over 120 Democratic amendments and called the text their last and final. What sank it was the ethics provision, the one covering Trump's and his family's crypto holdings. Lummis, the bill's chief champion, summed it up in two words: it's over.
The industry spent years and hundreds of millions on this framework, and the president's conflict of interest took it down.
🟢 On September 16 came a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4%, unanimous, 12 votes out of 12. First increase since July 2023. The driver is inflation, pushed along by oil above $110 after the strike on the Saudi pipeline.
The dot plot is harsher than the decision itself: 16 of 18 committee members expect another hike before year-end, and the 2027 median implies no cuts at all. Bitcoin barely flinched on the news, holding near $75.7k. But money is getting more expensive, and that is exactly the air risk assets struggle to breathe.
🟢 On September 16 Circle launched the Arc mainnet: BlackRock and Visa among the validators, 10 billion ARC minted, over $370M in USDC moved in during the first two hours. Sounds loud, but that's roughly 0.05% of all USDC, liquidity is thin, spreads are wide, and half the apps are still raw.
☠️ The Robinhood Chain style meme season did not show up on day one. What did show up, the day before launch, hit the people getting ready for it: a trader says he lost around $600,000 while looking for a way to bridge into Arc. A fake Cloudflare check, a script run with admin rights on Windows, and from there the whole machine gets cleaned out. The malicious links were hidden inside meme coin metadata, which is where aggregators pull them from - meaning the trap sat on the exact step where a trader goes to vet a token. The same playbook we covered separately.
Clarity failed, and rates went up instead of down. The expectation didn't hold on either count. While Congress stalls, the regulators are writing the rules themselves: the SEC already has Regulation Crypto Assets on the table, comments run until October 20, and its chairman said plainly that the agency will deliver with or without legislation. The framework is coming anyway - just not from the people everyone was waiting on, and without a public vote.
➡️Crouton.digital | About us⬅️