RESULTS — JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER
Eleven positions closed. Eleven closed in profit.
Before anyone gets excited, the honest breakdown: seven hit the full published target. Four I closed early - in profit - when the setup stopped working. Small wins instead of stop-outs. That's not a footnote. That's the system.
The numbers:
I don't think every position needs to be a 30–40% winner.
A portfolio is built from different types of opportunities.
WHAT MATTERS MORE THAN THE WIN RATE
The interesting part isn't simply that every target was reached.
It's the fact that every position had a defined:
Every entry was published here in real time - entry, stop, target, size - before the move, not after. Scroll up and check.
What made this work was not prediction. Half of these positions were uncomfortable at some point. The AMD long was cut for +2% just before the stock broke down, and the AMD short opened into that same crash paid +29%. I'd rather book a small gain than defend a thesis into a stop.
Sizing did the rest. No single trade risked more than ~1.7% of the portfolio. When a loss can only cost you 1%, you never have to be a hero.
One warning, mostly to myself: 11-for-11 is discipline plus variance being generous. It will not last forever. At some point a stop will trigger, it will cost about 1%, and nothing about the process will change.
Position: unchanged.
Process: unchanged.
The next setups will be judged by exactly the same rules.
Eleven positions closed. Eleven closed in profit.
Before anyone gets excited, the honest breakdown: seven hit the full published target. Four I closed early - in profit - when the setup stopped working. Small wins instead of stop-outs. That's not a footnote. That's the system.
The numbers:
▪️11 trades — 11 profitable
6 longs / 5 shorts
▪️+11.5% total portfolio return
▪️+9.1% average move per trade
▪️Average risk per trade: ~1% of the portfolio
▪️Average holding period: 3 weeks
▪️Best trade: ROKU, +42% move, +63% on the position
I don't think every position needs to be a 30–40% winner.
A portfolio is built from different types of opportunities.
WHAT MATTERS MORE THAN THE WIN RATE
The interesting part isn't simply that every target was reached.
It's the fact that every position had a defined:
▪️Entry.
▪️Stop.
▪️Target.
▪️Position size.
▪️Time horizon.
Every entry was published here in real time - entry, stop, target, size - before the move, not after. Scroll up and check.
What made this work was not prediction. Half of these positions were uncomfortable at some point. The AMD long was cut for +2% just before the stock broke down, and the AMD short opened into that same crash paid +29%. I'd rather book a small gain than defend a thesis into a stop.
Sizing did the rest. No single trade risked more than ~1.7% of the portfolio. When a loss can only cost you 1%, you never have to be a hero.
One warning, mostly to myself: 11-for-11 is discipline plus variance being generous. It will not last forever. At some point a stop will trigger, it will cost about 1%, and nothing about the process will change.
Position: unchanged.
Process: unchanged.
The next setups will be judged by exactly the same rules.
▪️Define the risk.
▪️Take the asymmetric trade.
▪️Know when to get out.