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JoesCrypt

Гео и язык канала: Весь мир, Английский

Категория: Криптовалюты

Nothing posted or shared in this channel should be considered financial advice.
Disclaimer: bit.ly/asymm-disclaimer

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JoesCrypt

6 Oct, 06:52

A stunning breakdown between high yield and the S&P 500 $HYG $SPY

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2107317891934924810

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JoesCrypt

5 Oct, 21:26

$CIBR continues to new highs.

Cyber security a huge beneficiary of the AI explosion

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2107175283120116006

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JoesCrypt

5 Oct, 21:22

$NVDA new ATH

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2107174666511233455

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JoesCrypt

5 Oct, 06:04

This is precisely why I invested in @ReflectionAI_

Nvidia-backed Reflection is preparing to release a powerful open-weight model that is set to shake up the AI race, with Axios sources expecting it to compete with the top Chinese open models while initially trailing the best U.S. frontier systems.

Open source is how enterprises and the government will ultimately trust AI.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106943295335399628

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JoesCrypt

4 Oct, 20:30

Russell 2000 held the squeeze vs rates

It still kept most of that move, so you've got a short-term divergence versus rates now - if rates pull back, $IWM should really rally here.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106798972794978598

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JoesCrypt

4 Oct, 20:01

$META Off-Balance-Sheet Obligations Are 5.6x Its On-BS Debt

As of 6/30/26, META's off-balance sheet obligations totaled $628B against on-BS debt plus leases of only $112B.

Compare that to $GOOGL's $91B in off-BS contracted leases (44% of total on+off-BS obligations) and $AMZN's $137B (36%).

Traditional EV calculations exclude these commitments.

Since equity is residual value after all debt and contractual obligations are settled, rising off-BS commitments are a direct headwind to equity holders regardless of how they're accounted for.

Including META's off-BS obligations in its EV raises its valuation multiples by 35%.

The same adjustment adds only +3% for GOOGL and +9% for AMZN.

META is far more capital-obligated relative to its on-BS disclosures than either peer.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106791709195800730

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JoesCrypt

4 Oct, 18:52

“AI data center delays are now a credit risk, not just a capex story”

— @silvercrestgrp

The AI buildout has been a major contributor to economic growth through capital expenditures and employment, but those massive capital expenditures require financing. Even cash-rich mega-cap tech companies have begun issuing debt.

The broader credit market is generally still strong, with high yield and investment grade spreads ticking up a bit in recent weeks.

The risk they flag is timing. Delayed revenue can pressure debt service and suppress IRRs.

A risk to the projected return on capital, not a risk to the return of capital

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106774344621809901

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JoesCrypt

4 Oct, 18:04

CTAs sitting in their 9th most short 10Y position in 25 years

-- @SEBGroup

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106761992359096495

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JoesCrypt

4 Oct, 15:44

Mega-cap tech "other income" was $155bn and 12% of S&P 500 EPS in Q2

That’s expected to fade in Q3 as the equity investments didn’t appreciate as much in Q3 - investments like Anthropic, OpenAI, etc.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106727032118014006

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JoesCrypt

4 Oct, 15:35

US-Listed ETF Inflows Hit Record $1.54 Trillion YTD Through September, Eclipsing 2025's $1.52 Trillion With Three Months Left

On the final day of September, a $13 billion single-day inflow pushed monthly totals to $151 billion and crossed the prior annual record.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106724516084810032

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JoesCrypt

4 Oct, 14:25

High yield largest 1-day decline in 18 months this past week.

Credit vol surges as rates spill over.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106707151154827521

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JoesCrypt

4 Oct, 05:38

Fiscal deficits decoupled from unemployment in 2016; pro-cyclical spending now keeps inflation structurally above target

Interesting take from Simon White at Bloomberg Macro. He puts a precise date on when the fiscal regime broke: 2016, when budget deficits began meaningfully diverging from unemployment rates across the US, EU, UK and Japan.

Before that, governments ran deficits when economies were weak and pulled back when they recovered. That relationship collapsed, and it hasn't come back.

The chart shows fiscal deficit percentile minus unemployment percentile for a mean of the four major Western blocs across expanding periods.

For the 40 years before 2016, that spread oscillated around zero. Since then it has stayed persistently elevated, meaning governments kept spending even as labor markets tightened.

The pandemic turbocharged it further.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106574527345893686

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JoesCrypt

4 Oct, 04:21

5% isn't 7% - Stocks are fine until they aren’t

Historically, equities have actually handled the 5–6% yield bucket reasonably well.

In months when the 10-year was between 5% and 6% and yields were rising, the S&P still returned an average 0.8%.

At 6–7%, that falls to basically zero.

Once yields were above 7% and rising, average monthly returns turned negative.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106555137036837254

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JoesCrypt

4 Oct, 00:03

AWS EC2 ML Capacity Block Prices Up ~15%, Fourth Consecutive Quarter

Effective October 7, 2026, AWS implemented an approximate 15% rate increase on its EC2 Capacity Blocks for machine learning.

That's the fourth consecutive quarterly price increase, and A100 instances are included in the hike for the first time since January.

$AMZN

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106489970420773279

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JoesCrypt

3 Oct, 23:12

Goldman's heuristic is that equities can absorb a rates move until it reaches roughly two standard deviations in a month.

We hit that level this past week.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106477387181633946

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JoesCrypt

3 Oct, 23:07

MCP Events - What Is Old Is New (again)

Or more commonly known in software design as “pub/sub” aka publish subscribe and webhooks.

We are seeing this now with agents.

We saw the same thing 15+ years ago in cloud computing and it enabled a Cambrian explosion of internet apps.

I suspect the same with agents.

https://developers.openai.com/plugins/build/mcp-events

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106476217390202978

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JoesCrypt

3 Oct, 22:57

Goldman puts $AMZN on the Conviction List, $375 target vs $249; 51% upside.

Management has estimated AWS could reach a $1tn annual run rate.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106473612186411511

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JoesCrypt

3 Oct, 22:12

France is, how you say, fuct?

France OATs vs Bunds spread now reaching stratospheric highs.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106462035970334964

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JoesCrypt

3 Oct, 21:50

Bessent downplays rising yields and AI bubble concerns

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is consistent with a global trend and does not warrant overreaction.

In an Axios interview Saturday he said he would be worried only by an idiosyncratic spike and that he has not seen flows selling U.S. Treasuries to buy Bunds or JGBs.

He added he cannot control the bond market and can only urge market participants to pause and reassess. Bessent praised U.S. financial intervention in Argentina, said he is open to similar assistance in future, and called Argentina’s stabilization potentially generational for Latin America’s alignment with the U.S.

He also dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, noting heavy investment from Microsoft, Google and Meta and marked revenue growth at Anthropic and OpenAI.

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106456842608291997

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JoesCrypt

3 Oct, 20:42

Gasoline prices plotted against the Democratic generic ballot margin through September 2026.

It’s really that simple, isn’t it?

https://x.com/joemccann/status/2106439638881554922

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