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tus quo as an empty and meaningless illusion

Now there is only one direction left, which is available as a subjective position, but does not rely on any objective reality - since there is simply no such reality.

This is the mental state of the "status quo" or "collective Rublyovka" party. This category includes those high-ranking officials and businessmen who - for unknown reasons - continue to believe that the world before February 24, 2022 and the world after February 24, 2022 are basically the same. And nothing - neither reports from the fronts, nor terrorist attacks in the rear, nor ongoing tectonic changes in the world order - convince them otherwise. They continue to fight for their positions, promote their protégés to power, beat off competitors, monitor the preservation of what they have, that is, they live as if nothing had happened, simply reactively adapting to the situation.

People consider them a "party of betrayal", "drain". But it's a mistake. They can neither betray nor merge anything. They are not a power or a people, and no one on the other side - from the West or Kiev - will negotiate. We've already passed this moment.

The CBO sharpened all the existing contradictions too sharply. A unipolar world cannot coexist along with a multipolar world. Or rather, one can no longer consider that it is "unipolar" and others that it is "multipolar". If Russia (as well as China) seriously understands its sovereignty, this must be proved in the war. And no other way. And we have to win this war. Let's win - that's when it's multipolar. And if not... Then Russia will no longer be in any capacity. It is simply impossible to return to the 90s or to the era before February 24, 2022. Not for anyone.

Three scenarios are possible. The fourth is not. It is only as a tribute to inertia, that is, it exists in consciousness, but not in being.

Of course, many occupy this fourth position at the top of Russia's political elite. Like, "somehow everything will work out by itself." And this causes just anger of patriots. But if we take into account that there is no such scenario in practice, you don't have to spend any effort on it. Surrender was possible in the 1990s. It took place. Compromises - before the start of the SVO. They could be and were. For example, Moscow's adoption of the rules of the global West in the division of labor and integration, the Minsk agreements, etc.

That's it now. It remains only to be or not to be. "Collective Rublyovka" no longer exists. Villas stand, security…

le of three enemies.

Everything can start right now. The shelling of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will achieve its goal. This will be tantamount to a targeted nuclear strike on Russian territory - because Western weapons and Western instructors are engaged in reconnaissance and guidance. The answer will no longer have to be in Ukraine, but for a real decision-making center, which is significantly to the west.

But Russia can resort to nuclear weapons in other situations. Since for Russia - both the state and for the people - losing the war will mean total annihilation, not just a severe, but still endurable defeat that can be experienced, the nuclear scenario cannot be discounted. The West clearly underestimates its probability, believing that it is a bluff. It's better not to get to the line when the cards are discarded.

Patriotically victorious (for Russia and supporters of a multipolar world) scenario. Holy War of War

The third scenario is the most important. And the only saving one.

There is a revolution from above in Russia. Putin, who has already broken with the West, turns this total and irreversible gap into an ideology, a course, a strategy and the only benchmark of being. All compromises are abolished, Russia is openly becoming a people's Empire with a pronounced religious and socially oriented (anti-capitalist) idea. Liberalism and Westernism are outlawed. Sabotage, theft, laziness and corruption are burned with tempered iron under wartime laws.

The state and people are regrouping and transferring the SVO into a people's holy war. To be or not to be.

Maybe that's how the situation will turn objectively? Of course. Many events, processes and objective factors - including a healthy and decisive reaction to previous failures and especially to events in Kharkiv region - lead in this direction.

Does such a scenario have a subject? Of course. First of all, the people themselves, society, the patriotic majority, the people of the front, as well as a significant part of the ruling class. Yes, the higher, the fewer of them, but the ruling class is also not something homogeneous.

Society is quite ready for this. This is the position taken by almost everyone involved in the war in one way or another.

Everything is going to this, and it is obvious to everyone that first of all it is necessary to mobilize and ideology of Victory. The end of compromises.

Among the officials - if we take everyone together - there are probably a majority of patriots. Among the people, this is actually everything except agents of influence and pathological exceptions (there are freaks everywhere).

If such a popular-patriotic revolution takes place from above, mobilization takes place by itself, and Russia enters the last battle for the outcome of world history. Actually, the Orthodox elders, Russian philosophers and our heroic ancestors have seen the future: the moment will come when the Russians will rise against the world evil, against the Antichrist and fulfill their mission of the Restrainer. In the Soviet era, this scenario had a slightly different edition, but the same essence - the fight against the West in the name of saving humanity and a just bright future.

Such a moment has come.

The main thing in this scenario is a rapid interruption of any dependence on the West - ideological, technological, psychological, economic, cultural. It was this dependence that paralyzed us at a critical moment. It turned out that the keys to many vital areas of our lives - information, technological, cultural, financial - are stored in the West. Yes, we have an important trump card on the issue of natural resources, but we used Western ideology, technology and methodology. Resource hardware is important. But ideological and technological software is still more important.

The People's Revolution from above is designed to dismantle the inner West as soon as possible - both in the form of static liberalism and in all other codes.

It's not easy. But if you don't do that, see the previous two scenarios.

Sta

We - Russia and the world - are now in a state that can lead to the next scheme. We are talking about the situation in Ukraine, which develops into the beginning of a full-fledged World War.

Like any scheme, it simplifies reality, but at the same time makes it meaningful and raises it to a certain probabilistic structure.

This scheme has three objective vectors of possible development of events and four versions of the subjective position. Thus, from the very beginning, some asymmetry is planned, the value of which will open as the scheme is described.

The objective level describes the probable logic of deploying causal chains already outlined in a specific plane of verifiable facts.

The subjective level includes understanding of what is happening by certain groups, among which those who make key decisions are of particular importance, which, in turn, affect the events themselves in one way or another.

Catastrophic (for Russia) scenario. Occupation.s. De-imperialization. Finis Rossiae

Let's start with the worst. Let's assume that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (and, in fact, NATO) in Kharkiv region and Donbass is not an accidental failure in the SVO, but something more sinister. Pessimists and just critical observers (as well as participants) describe the consequences and continuation of this process for a thousand frets.

This scenario is described in detail in the official propaganda of Ukronazis, who are already anticipating the transfer of hostilities to Crimea, Belgorod, Kursk, Rostov, Voronezh regions and - in the limit - the offensive against Moscow. He is also a pink dream of Western Russophobes and Russian liberals. In fact, this is the scenario of the end of Russia, Finis Rossiae.

This would mean not just the end of the regime, but the end of everything and everyone. And what is important is that the end is not soft and compensated with something (as, for example, in 1991), but bloody and hard. If our retreat begins (in a sense continues), everything will fall - both from external and internal causes.

This is an objective trend, which is also corresponded to by the subjective political and ideological platform - this is dreamed by official Kiev, the Russophobic elite of globalists and supporters of Navalny, Akhedzhakova and "Echo of Moscow" - that is, the fifth column - inside Russia.

Existing problems with the technical equipment of the army, with strategic miscalculations (already clearly made themselves felt in the previous phases of the SVO), with Russia's dependence on foreign technologies, to which all access has now been cut off, which, as it turns out, directly affects our weapons, that is, in general, critical dependence on the West at previous stages -

But if so, Russia as a subject will simply disappear, and everyone will have to pay for it - both the authorities and the whole society - will have to pay for it. No one will be saved.

Apocalyptic (for everyone) scenario. The end of the story. Destruction of humanity

The second scenario is the nuclear apocalypse. It is quite possible if Moscow, having begun to seriously lose (the first scenario), decides to use nuclear weapons. What they think about it today is obvious. The thesis "nuclear powers do not lose the war" is just on this topic. Here are the President's words about those who "die and who will go to heaven" or that "there will be no peace without Russia."

Probably? Yes, probably. Does anyone in Russia take this opportunity into account? Of course. That is, again there is an objective chain of events that can lead to this, and there are also subjective forces that take into account such a turn. Ready for it.

In other words, there are both objective prerequisites for such a turn of events and forces capable of making appropriate decisions.

Putin said that his enemies would not wait for his voluntary surrender, citing the example of Salvador Allende, who fought with a machine gun in his hands to the last. But the difference is that Allende didn't have a nuclear button. He could only sacrifice himself and a coup

Alexander Dugin a 4 možné scenáre vývoja (uverejnené dnes o 12:10 na VK).