📱 Smart moves by Telegram and TON Foundation
Where do TONs from the sale of usernames and anonymous numbers on Fragment go? The correct answer is, of course, Telegram. Pavel Durov, back
in February 2024, announced that Telegram intends to limit TON ownership to 10% of the entire issue, which is 510 million TONs. From the same day, Telegram started selling TONs via over-the-counter (OTC) transactions at a 10% to 50% discount, while setting locks (freezes) for 1-5 years.
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Telegram OTC: Analyzing WalletsAnalyzing the
Telegram and
Fragment wallets, we can see that they now have a combined 4% of the total TON issuance, which means that most of the coins have already been sold. The entire process of selling and managing TON goes through vesting contracts that release a certain amount of coins within a set time frame. There is even a separate section on
vesting.ton.org for this (here's an
example).In researching the wallets to which Telegram's TONs were transferred, I found the following key points:
1. Staking: Telegram actively participates in TON staking through numerous single nominee pools. This allows them to earn a return of around 3% per annum.
2. Validators: Telegram for money with Fragment acts as a validator for the TON network. Despite this, validators are not active in voting. For example, in a recent vote to reduce network commissions, they simply
did not cast a vote.3. Pool Investments: About 30 million TON has been allocated to pools on smart contracts from TON Whales. This decision seems odd, since they have smart contracts from TOP, and yes, a whole liquid stack of Tonstakers. Not trusted?
There are no other interesting mechanics of using the TON whales. Of the interesting buyers, could only recognize
@whale, they bought 3.6M TON and the largest purchase from a
stranger was 22.7M TON (Pantera Capital?)
Westing and ForecastsA close look at Telegram's vesting of smart contracts shows that all TONs are frozen for a year with a total vesting period of 5 years. The first phase of unlocking will happen in February 2025, when a quarter of all TONs will be unlocked, and then a portion of the coins will be released every month until 2028.
Interestingly, almost all long-term-locked TON buyers sold their current TON coins in April-June 2024 (at a rate of $6-7). This may indicate their confidence that the price of TON will come down, especially since they bought at up to 50% discount.
From 2025, the unblocking of TONs will begin not only through Telegram's OTC sales, but also through the all-forgotten
TON Believers Fund, into which such companies as TOP and DWF, and there are 1.3 billion TONs. This will put significant pressure on the market. I estimate that by the end of 2025, the price of TON could fall below $3.
In addition,
171 inactive wallets of early miners with a total balance of 1 billion TON will be unlocked in 2027. While there is an understanding that these are Telegram wallets, it doesn't give confidence in the future.
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ConclusionsThe TON Foundation is actively increasing TVL (total value of blockchain assets) and driving activity on the blockchain, through boosts and open league, aiming to reach $1 billion TVL by November 2024. This will help attract more investors to
The Gateway. However, the boosts are not infinite, and from February 2025 until 2028, significant changes in the TON exchange rate are expected, which could lead to serious fluctuations in the market.
It's worth noting that Telegram says in all presentations that 500M users will come to TON by 2028, but newcomers will be completely unaware of OTC sales and how TONs were blocked from the first miners, and by that time all unlocks will be completed.
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