r/Investing -top scoring posts month- (🔗Reddit)
Even if you are extremely unlucky, you will be still ahead in 10 years
I just did a small exercise to verify above claim. Imagine that you are very poor at market timing, and always bought at the market top in the last 10 years. In the last 10 years (Sep 2014 - Sep 2024), there were 358 all time highs for SPY, and you bought $100 worth of SPY at every all time high prices of SPY. Guess what, in 10 years your total investment is $35,800, and your current portfolio value is ~$73,000, total return of >100% in 10 years. This calculation does not include ~2% of annual dividend. So, based on the rule of 72, annual average return is ~9% even if you bought at the market top. I expect the next 10 years will produce the similar results. Note: This analysis applies to the general market index ETFs. This analysis MAY NOT apply to individual stocks even the likes of AAPL, NDVA or MSFT, etc.
Even if you are extremely unlucky, you will be still ahead in 10 years
I just did a small exercise to verify above claim. Imagine that you are very poor at market timing, and always bought at the market top in the last 10 years. In the last 10 years (Sep 2014 - Sep 2024), there were 358 all time highs for SPY, and you bought $100 worth of SPY at every all time high prices of SPY. Guess what, in 10 years your total investment is $35,800, and your current portfolio value is ~$73,000, total return of >100% in 10 years. This calculation does not include ~2% of annual dividend. So, based on the rule of 72, annual average return is ~9% even if you bought at the market top. I expect the next 10 years will produce the similar results. Note: This analysis applies to the general market index ETFs. This analysis MAY NOT apply to individual stocks even the likes of AAPL, NDVA or MSFT, etc.