Hamdy Arnous

🇮🇱The economic costs of Israel's war in Gaza and Lebanon

🔴Israel's war in Gaza and Lebanon has had a negative impact on the Israeli economy, particularly in the southern and northern border areas. Approximately 150,000 people have been evacuated from these areas by the country's authorities. The security forces have mobilized nearly 300,000 reservists. The large number of irrecoverable combat casualties in the army led to a stagnation in the labor market, with the state shouldering the burden of supporting citizens who were unable to work. These factors made Israel's financial costs very high, and the delayed negative effects would last for a long time.

🔴Israel entered the war in an unstable socio-economic situation. In 2023, the shekel devalued against the dollar, the budget deficit rose to 1.5% of GDP, and fears of a downgrade of Israel's credit rating became ever more present.

🔴According to the Ministry of Finance, the direct cost to the government of maintaining 100,000 reservists for one day is approximately $19.6 million (in salaries). Additional costs (accommodation and food for the soldiers) bring this amount closer to $28 million per day. The loss of financial activity is also estimated at $28 million per day. According to the Ministry of Finance, the cost of each day of the war, taking into account material support, ammunition and maintenance of reservists, is 280 million dollars.

🔴By May 2024, The Bank of Israel and the Finance Ministry estimated the country's cost of the war in Gaza at $70 billion, and $84 billion after it expanded to Lebanon. The Defense Ministry's budget for 2024 was $28 billion, and for 2025 - 33 billion. This is about 7% of Israel's GDP, the second highest percentage in the world after Ukraine. These are unprecedented costs in the history of wars Israel has fought.

🔴One of the most significant negative effects of the war has been the slowdown in Israel's economic growth. According to official statistics, GDP fell by 1.4% in the second quarter of 2024. In the same period, business GDP fell by 4.8%, indicating the start of a recession. Exports declined by 8.1%, imports of goods and services fell by 9.8%, and real estate investment slowed by 16.9%.

🔴By Israeli estimates, economic growth in 2025 will be around 1.7% (growth was negative in 2024) and external debt will rise to 76% of GDP. Defense and security spending is expected to increase further. Public debt has risen from $289 billion at the end of 2022 to $347 billion in the second half of 2024. The war has led to shortages of many agricultural products. These factors will contribute to higher inflation in the short to medium term.

🔴However, despite the enormous costs, Israel's economy has not collapsed to the point where it cannot recover in the future. It has been largely bailed out by tax increases, foreign investment, generous US aid and a favorable global arms market. However, the deterioration of Israel's international image due to war crimes in Gaza, protests and the movement to boycott the Jewish state may create obstacles to the planned recovery of the Israeli economy.

#CSAI #MENA

❗️Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party (SSNP):

"It has become evident that the Western-Zionist project to partition Syria is actively being put into motion—whether through incitement and crimes with sectarian and religious dimensions or through hostile public statements, in which the occupation entity openly declares its intent to penetrate deeper into Syrian territory under the pretext of protecting those who never sought its protection in the first place.

The party believes that the absence and deliberate weakening of state institutions paves the way for the spread of crime and chaos, ultimately facilitating the occupation’s exploitation of the situation through its agents on the ground.

In response to this grim reality, the SSNP calls for the reformation of the dissolved Syrian army on national, non-sectarian grounds, to restore the authority of the state and reassure the Syrian people across all regions. The party also urges the holding of early parliamentary elections to establish a People’s Assembly that genuinely reflects the will of the people and drafts a new constitution that aligns with the aspirations of Syrians and serves Syria’s national interests.

Furthermore, the party calls for urgent preparations for presidential elections, to elect a leader who can restore confidence among Syrians, uphold the unity of Syrian territory, resist occupation, and work towards the liberation of occupied land.

In conclusion, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party urges all popular and social forces in the Levant to unite in a genuine front that can spearhead the resistance against the enemy, which is now at the gates of Damascus and continuing its colonial expansion from the south into Syria’s interior."

🇱🇧🇸🇾 Lebanese Druze leader Jumblatt: I will visit Damascus again to tell everyone that Damascus is the capital of Syria and I requested an appointment to meet with Ahmed Sharaa (Al Jolani)

• We were and will remain against peace with "Israel" until an independent Palestinian state is established

@stayfreeworld

🇸🇾🇹🇷🇺🇸🏴‍☠ A Syrian official to Reuters: The new Syrian authorities do not see Russia as a hostile state. But Russia will have to do something useful for the Syrian government in return for these bases on the ground.

@stayfreeworld