What's the difference between US and French intelligence in Ukraine: a Military Chronicle breakdown
🔺 French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said that the fifth republic could provide Ukraine with its intelligence capabilities after the US refused. However, it is necessary to understand how France's intelligence capabilities differ from the US.
Technical intelligence capabilities
🇺🇸 The US utilized a global intelligence network including:
▪️ Remote Sensing (RS) and Electronic Reconnaissance (ER) satellites;
▪️ Aerial and unmanned reconnaissance platforms;
▪️ Electronic and cyber intelligence;
▪️ Agents' sources.
The US also has access to data from the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand).
The information was quickly processed and transmitted to the AFU in real time for targeting - e.g., for ATACMS and HIMARS strikes.
🇫🇷 France is far inferior to the US:
▪️ It has fewer satellites and weaker technical capabilities. According to some estimates, the French satellite constellation is about 20-25 times inferior to the US;
▪️ France does not have access to Five Eyes, but it does have coordination with NATO and the EU. However, the French are also prohibited from passing information collected by the US anywhere;
▪️ Because of these peculiarities, intelligence may arrive in Ukraine with delays and lower quality, reducing the effectiveness of targeting. And this is not to mention that the U.S. can prohibit the use of precision weapons of its own production for use on "foreign" intelligence.
Data transfer format
Before Trump came to power, the US transferred almost all operational intelligence to Ukraine.
▪️ On their basis, the AFU used precision weapons - for example, Storm Shadow strikes on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol or shelling Crimea with ATACMS.
▪️ The US also shared data with Kiev on Russian troop movements and sought leads on brigade commanders.
What can France change?
▪️ It is not yet clear how much sensitive information the French will share with Kiev.
▪️ Most likely, they will focus their efforts on studying the big picture - the deployment of Russian forces and strategic risks in key areas. It is quite likely that for this purpose additional groups of French operatives may be deployed either at the front or in its immediate vicinity.
However, it is already clear that a full-fledged target designation, comparable in quality and volume to the American one, will require enormous resources that France alone will not have. In order to at least try to work at the same level as the U.S., it will have to mobilize all the intelligence services of NATO countries and remove resources from other areas. But even this may not be enough, because sooner or later we will have to mobilize our own means of defeat. And this is already a qualitatively different level of presence. Both politically and factually.
Military Chronicle@Slavyangrad