Even if all migration into Europe were to immediately and permanently stop – a “zero migration” scenario – the Muslim population of Europe still would be expected to rise from the current level of 4.9% to 7.4% by the year 2050. This is because Muslims are younger (by 13 years, on average) and have higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern.
Finally, a “high” migration scenario projects the record flow of refugees into Europe between 2014 and 2016 to continue indefinitely into the future with the same religious composition (i.e., mostly made up of Muslims) in addition to the typical annual flow of regular migrants. In this scenario, Muslims could make up 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 – nearly triple the current share, but still considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe.
While Europe’s Muslim population is expected to grow in all three scenarios – and more than double in the medium and high migration scenarios – Europe’s non-Muslims, on the other hand, are projected to decline in total number in each scenario. Migration, however, does mitigate this decline somewhat; nearly half of all recent migrants to Europe (47%) were not Muslim, with Christians making up the next-largest group https://perma.cc/WSE8-9H6C
Islam in Europe https://perma.cc/H2ZL-J96P
Figure 1 shows the percentage of people in 15 European countries who are willing to accept Muslims as neighbours. On average, 83% of the population in Western European countries is keen to accept Muslims as their neighbours. Only 11% of the population does not want to have Muslim neighbours (with 4% of the population being undecided).
Figure 2 shows the percentage of Europeans who are willing to accept Muslims as members of their family. On average, 66% of the population in Western European countries sees no problem in having Muslim family members and 24% of the population does not want to have Muslims as family members.
Finally, a “high” migration scenario projects the record flow of refugees into Europe between 2014 and 2016 to continue indefinitely into the future with the same religious composition (i.e., mostly made up of Muslims) in addition to the typical annual flow of regular migrants. In this scenario, Muslims could make up 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 – nearly triple the current share, but still considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe.
While Europe’s Muslim population is expected to grow in all three scenarios – and more than double in the medium and high migration scenarios – Europe’s non-Muslims, on the other hand, are projected to decline in total number in each scenario. Migration, however, does mitigate this decline somewhat; nearly half of all recent migrants to Europe (47%) were not Muslim, with Christians making up the next-largest group https://perma.cc/WSE8-9H6C
Islam in Europe https://perma.cc/H2ZL-J96P
Figure 1 shows the percentage of people in 15 European countries who are willing to accept Muslims as neighbours. On average, 83% of the population in Western European countries is keen to accept Muslims as their neighbours. Only 11% of the population does not want to have Muslim neighbours (with 4% of the population being undecided).
Figure 2 shows the percentage of Europeans who are willing to accept Muslims as members of their family. On average, 66% of the population in Western European countries sees no problem in having Muslim family members and 24% of the population does not want to have Muslims as family members.