Recently, a number of popular writers have warned that Europe is heading toward a 'Eurabian' future in which a surging Muslim demographic tide leads to a conquest (or reconquest) of Europe. This prophesy has appeared in both North America and Europe.
Eurabia is an Islamophobic conspiracy theory and a doomsday scenario in which Europe will be Islamized in the near future. The doomsday scenario involves Muslims (whom the kind of people who promote this theory conflate with Arabs) forming the majority of Europe’s population by the end of the 21st century, due to immigration and to higher birth-rates. They will then seize control and Islamize the continent.
Fertility is a factor that remains important even in the absence of immigration. The Muslim total fertility rate in Austria in 1981 was 3.09 children per woman as against a population average of 1.67. In 1991, the ratio was 2.77 to 1.51. In 2001 it stood at 2.34 to 1.32.
There is considerable evidence that native-born Muslims have significantly reduced fertility as compared with immigrant Muslims.
By 2050, they will comprise at least 14 percent of the Austrian population. However, this assumes net immigration does not rise outside its current range of 19,000-28,000 per year. High Muslim component to the immigration flow, the proportion could reach as high as 25 percent by 2051. However, if we stick with the conservative estimate of 14 percent Muslim in 2050, the proportion Muslim in Austria in 2025 will be approximately 9-10 percent. (Goujon et al. 2006)
Realität?
Anteil nicht-österreichischer Staatsangehöriger in % 19,0 (2023) vs 9.7% (2006)
Afghanistan + Türkei + Syrien + Bosnien = 348k / 9.1 mio = 3.8% = ⅓ von Goujon et al.
vs 0.75 mio / 8.9 mio = 8.3%
Finally, the bottom left campaign comes from the German far right party “Alternative for Germany” and reads “So that Europe does not become Eurabia!” while showing an Orientalist painting of a white woman at an Arab slave auction, speaking to the values of “security” and “power.”
Eurabia is an Islamophobic conspiracy theory and a doomsday scenario in which Europe will be Islamized in the near future. The doomsday scenario involves Muslims (whom the kind of people who promote this theory conflate with Arabs) forming the majority of Europe’s population by the end of the 21st century, due to immigration and to higher birth-rates. They will then seize control and Islamize the continent.
Fertility is a factor that remains important even in the absence of immigration. The Muslim total fertility rate in Austria in 1981 was 3.09 children per woman as against a population average of 1.67. In 1991, the ratio was 2.77 to 1.51. In 2001 it stood at 2.34 to 1.32.
There is considerable evidence that native-born Muslims have significantly reduced fertility as compared with immigrant Muslims.
By 2050, they will comprise at least 14 percent of the Austrian population. However, this assumes net immigration does not rise outside its current range of 19,000-28,000 per year. High Muslim component to the immigration flow, the proportion could reach as high as 25 percent by 2051. However, if we stick with the conservative estimate of 14 percent Muslim in 2050, the proportion Muslim in Austria in 2025 will be approximately 9-10 percent. (Goujon et al. 2006)
Realität?
Anteil nicht-österreichischer Staatsangehöriger in % 19,0 (2023) vs 9.7% (2006)
Afghanistan + Türkei + Syrien + Bosnien = 348k / 9.1 mio = 3.8% = ⅓ von Goujon et al.
vs 0.75 mio / 8.9 mio = 8.3%
Finally, the bottom left campaign comes from the German far right party “Alternative for Germany” and reads “So that Europe does not become Eurabia!” while showing an Orientalist painting of a white woman at an Arab slave auction, speaking to the values of “security” and “power.”