⚡ The line that separates an exchange from a sportsbook
Most people assume a prediction market and a sportsbook are the same product with different branding. The US regulator describes them differently, and the wording is worth reading twice.
That is the structural difference. A sportsbook makes money when you are wrong, because it is on the other side of your position. An exchange makes money on volume, whichever way you go.
The second thing most people miss: you are not locked in until the event resolves. You can trade in and out before settlement, at the current price.
And every contract names its settlement source before you enter. The Fed decision market settles on the Federal Reserve. Inflation and the jobs number settle on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not on someone's interpretation.
I broke the whole thing down in a new video: what an event contract actually is, why 70 cents means 70 percent, and the honest limits of these markets.
📹 Watch the full breakdown
#howto
📈 Kalshi — the CFTC-regulated US exchange I use for this
🔗 My channels: Youtube • X • LinkedIn • Instagram • Threads
Most people assume a prediction market and a sportsbook are the same product with different branding. The US regulator describes them differently, and the wording is worth reading twice.
CFTC-regulated exchanges, brokers, or other intermediaries that provide access to prediction markets do not take a side of the trade. They provide a platform for trading and are not competing against you
— CFTC
That is the structural difference. A sportsbook makes money when you are wrong, because it is on the other side of your position. An exchange makes money on volume, whichever way you go.
The second thing most people miss: you are not locked in until the event resolves. You can trade in and out before settlement, at the current price.
And every contract names its settlement source before you enter. The Fed decision market settles on the Federal Reserve. Inflation and the jobs number settle on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not on someone's interpretation.
I broke the whole thing down in a new video: what an event contract actually is, why 70 cents means 70 percent, and the honest limits of these markets.
📹 Watch the full breakdown
#howto
📈 Kalshi — the CFTC-regulated US exchange I use for this
🔗 My channels: Youtube • X • LinkedIn • Instagram • Threads