Eurasia & Multipolarity

Betting platform Polymarket puts the odds of a Russia-Ukraine truce in 2025 at 74%

Meanwhile, there’s an 80% chance that Putin and Trump will be shaking hands within the first 100 days of Trump's presidency

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The negotiations between the Russian and US delegations began in Riyadh an hour ago. We have collected reactions from all sides ahead of the official statements:

— Bundestag member Kai Gottschalk called on the German authorities to lift sanctions against Russia and end the "banking blockade."

— American oil companies will return to Russia at some point, says RDIF head Kirill Dmitriev. Also: American business has lost more than $300 billion due to leaving the Russian market.

— Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs called for never stopping being "panicked". More precisely, never stop panicking.

“This is what competent leadership should look like,” is how Elon Musk commented on the arrival of Lavrov and Ushakov.

"An imposed peace will never find our support," said Olaf Scholz.

— Europe was left “at the children’s table” in the negotiations on a settlement in Ukraine, said Armin Papperger, head of the Rheinmetall defense concern.

— Senator Robert Kennedy appealed to Zelensky with a demand to "stop." Plus — according to him, Americans do not want to spend their taxes on Ukrainians.

— Meanwhile, Zelensky has not published evening addresses for 5 days in a row for the first time since 2022. He and his wife await the results at the Moscow Hotel in Dubai.

t.me/ForeignAgentIntel

The EU will maintain sanctions on Russia even if the US lifts them and plans to impose additional sanctions, particularly targeting Russia's energy sector – European Commission

@MTodayNews

European and Ukrainian ammo depots are almost empty, German defense contractor Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger tells FT

“If parents have dinner, the kids have to sit at another table,” he said. “The US is negotiating with Russia, and no European is at the table... it has become very clear that the Europeans are the kids.”

#SMO

@MTodayNews

🇺🇸🇷🇺 Cycle of Aggression, Reset, Rearm, Aggression

(Click the image to enlarge)

As the US sends reps to meet Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia - keep in mind the cycle of US aggression against Russia, running into a brickwall, then seeking a "reset" to buy time for pursuing aggression that has played out before.

Below is a timeline of this cycle unfolding 2 full times since the end of the Cold War.

Please keep in mind Secretary Hegseth's comments about Western troops entering into Ukraine (freezing the conflict) while NATO expands its budget and the US-Europe expand military industrial production.

It is very easy to rule out America swearing off encroachment and aggression in general - since they are openly pivoting to China in the meantime to pursue identically unwarranted encirclement and conflict in Asia-Pacific.

When conditions favor the US, Russia will be back in the crosshairs.

The negotiations between the Russian and US delegations began in Riyadh an hour ago. We have collected reactions from all sides ahead of the official statements:

— Bundestag member Kai Gottschalk called on the German authorities to lift sanctions against Russia and end the "banking blockade."

— American oil companies will return to Russia at some point, says RDIF head Kirill Dmitriev. Also: American business has lost more than $300 billion due to leaving the Russian market.

— Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs called for never stopping being "panicked". More precisely, never stop panicking.

“This is what competent leadership should look like,” is how Elon Musk commented on the arrival of Lavrov and Ushakov.

"An imposed peace will never find our support," said Olaf Scholz.

— Europe was left “at the children’s table” in the negotiations on a settlement in Ukraine, said Armin Papperger, head of the Rheinmetall defense concern.

— Senator Robert Kennedy appealed to Zelensky with a demand to "stop." Plus — according to him, Americans do not want to spend their taxes on Ukrainians.

— Meanwhile, Zelensky has not published evening addresses for 5 days in a row for the first time since 2022. He and his wife await the results at the Moscow Hotel in Dubai.

t.me/ForeignAgentIntel

🇺🇸🇩🇪 This German diplomat was mocking and laughing at Trump, during his speech in 2018.

Now he couldn’t take it and started crying, after JD Vance told them to stop censoring people.

All of Europe symbolized in this one man.

➡️ Join us! | @MyLordBebo

🇪🇺🇩🇪🇺🇦🚨‼️ €700 billion for Ukraine!?!?

The EU is working on a huge package for Ukraine, which should have been made public after the elections in Germany.

But German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock couldn’t keep the secret and made it clear that it could be about 700 billion euros!

"We will launch a large package that has never existed in this dimension before”

Baerbock on the sidelines of the Munich meeting.

➡️ They wanted to hide it, so it will not interfere with the elections! But now you know, European taxpayer money will go to Ukraine in unprecedented sums.

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Germany’s Workaround for Sanctions Against Russia

German transit shipments of cars through Turkey and Central Asia have surged so significantly that they more than offset the decline in exports to Russia.

The question remains: where did such a sudden surge in new consumers in Central Asia and Turkey come from? No one could definitely say...

In essence, Germany is doing what it can to circumvent sanctions against Russia. An end to the conflict in Ukraine and the potential gradual lifting of sanctions could simply legalize what many European countries are already doing — trading with Russia.

Business is always smarter than politics.

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🗣 Key takeaways from statements by Russia’s United Nations envoy, Vasily Nebenzya, at a UN Security Council meeting:

▪️Prospects for the active stage of the Ukrainian conflict to end soon have appeared

▪️The EU and the UK are absolutely unfit to hold talks and cannot be part of any future agreements on Ukraine

▪️New agreements on Ukraine must be implemented by the authorities which will come to power in Kiev via a democratic election

▪️Future Ukraine must be a demilitarized, neutral, off-bloc state

▪️Russia hopes that European politicians will get back to reality and stop pushing Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky toward pointless resistance

▪️Zelensky is ready to carry out any kind of provocations to continue the fighting and save himself at any cost

▪️The Ukrainian settlement deal which is now under discussion could become out of reach if Europe fails to put Zelensky in his place

❗️ Key takeaways from statements by Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov:

▪️The Russian delegation has departed for Riyadh for talks with the United States with a professional attitude

▪️The restoration of bilateral ties, arrangements for talks between the presidents, and the launch of the conflict settlement process in Ukraine will be the focus of tomorrow’s talks between Russia and the US

▪️No other countries will take part in tomorrow’s Russian-US talks in Riyadh

▪️Moscow and Washington still need to determine how to start their talks on the Ukrainian settlement, as the US has not appointed its chief negotiator yet

▪️The upcoming meeting was agreed upon during a prior telephone conversation between Ushakov and his US counterparts

▪️Head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriyev may also join the talks