Alexander Markovics | Z

🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦Reuters has published the most likely outcome of the peace talks.

The publication reports that most of the advisers to US President-elect Donald Trump are in favor of creating a demilitarized zone in Ukraine as part of a plan to resolve the conflict.

According to them, the buffer zone should be patrolled by European troops.

🇺🇦🇷🇺⚡️The ban on direct negotiations with Russia for Ukraine remains in force, said the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Sybiga.

He added that Kiev will not make concessions on the issue of the right to join NATO.

— ❗️🇮🇱/🇵🇸 BREAKING: According to the leaked details of the alleged upcoming Gaza ceasefire agreement, there will be a permanent ceasefire with a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza starting in Phase 2, and there is no official mention of any mechanism to remove Hamas from power

While it is too early to celebrate, if the details are correct and this deal is indeed approved by both sides, it marks an unprecedented victory for Hamas & the entire Palestinian Resistance. A permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces, with no guarantees to remove Hamas from power, is more than anyone could have hoped for.

@Middle_East_Spectator

🇬🇱🇷🇺Greenland recognizes Russia's global role in the international arena (c) Prime Minister of Greenland.

Well, look what he wanted. Under the threat of absorption by the USA, he decided to test the possibility of creating a Greenland Federal District.

Negotiations between the team (and soon the administration) of Donald Trump and the Russian political leadership are engaged in an informal exchange of views. Although both sides will not confirm this yet. Moreover, they represent classic geopolitical bidding, where Ukraine is just a part of the discussion (albeit an important one).
The main difficulty in Ukraine is that the minimum Russian conditions (constitutional borders, demilitarization with non-aligned status, and the repeal of laws discriminating against Russian culture) are unacceptable to the United States. For them, the maximum concessions to Russia are the "freezing" of the conflict along the front line and Ukraine's refusal to join NATO (while simultaneously deploying alliance troops in the form of peacekeepers on its territory).
In other words, a Russian-American deal can only happen if the United States radically changes its position towards concessions to Russia. Or Moscow will sign the new Minsk agreements and give up its territories (and this will be a direct violation of the Constitution of the Russian Federation) and the requirements for the neutralization of Ukraine (in this case, denazification should not be mentioned).
The Trump administration could make additional concessions to Russia, but it would clearly require Russia steps in the form of distancing itself from Iran and North Korea, and more restrained relations with China (ideally, benevolent neutrality towards the United States in the event of a US-Chinese conflict over Taiwan or other issues). For Moscow, this means geopolitical suicide, since in this case Washington will have the opportunity to smash its opponents into pieces.
From the point of view of Russia as a sovereign state, the best solution is to strengthen ties within the BRICS and bring this club of interests to the level of an alternative global economic and financial ecosystem to the West. However, not all BRICS countries are ready for this and are afraid of retaliatory American sanctions. There is progress in this direction, but it is extremely slow.
It is also necessary to turn the bilateral agreements on strategic partnership between Russia, North Korea, Belarus and Iran into a full-fledged military alliance involving China. But this is also unlikely so far, although in the event of increased US military pressure on these countries, it is quite possible in the medium term.
In summary, we can say that the probability of concluding a peace agreement on Ukraine this year is not high, but also not zero. An important advantage of Russia in the ongoing negotiations with the Trump administration is the gradual erosion of the front and the retreat of Ukrainian troops in almost all directions. From Moscow's point of view, there is no point in putting up if your army is constantly advancing. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is still unable to stabilize the front.
It is precisely with this circumstance that the new Trump administration's direct demand to Kiev (which is absolutely consonant with the old Biden administration) is related to lowering the mobilization age to 18 years. It was recently voiced by the future assistant to the President of the United States for National Security, Michael Waltz. But for the Ukrainian authorities, such a step means social suicide. In general, as long as the front line in Ukraine bends in a westerly direction, the chances of peace are low. Unless the Kremlin wants to behave irrationally.

@pintofmind