Let's talk about tactics:
Azerbaijan is conducting very ill cordinated combined arms warfare battles.
In an early video, some T-72's were seen in front of around a dozen APC's rolling forward, only to be hit by what appears to be mines.
Judging by the distance between the vehicles, that looks like a standard assault of a Motorized Rifle Company.
A couple of full tank advances were seen, ending horribly for Baku's forces after losing some tanks due to ATGM's (aka, the most common way to stop enemy tanks).
Engineering vehicles have been lost apparently.
On the air, Baku is having more luck.
Because Armenia does not have any fighter jet, they rely heavily on Air Defence Systems to keep the sky clear.
It comes obvious then, that Azerbaijan would try to destroy as many AD systems as possible, in order to fully utilize their air assets and their allied ones (Turkey).
Baku claimed 12x enemy 9K33 Osa destroyed.
We were able to confirm 4, while 3 more where (we think, because of the size) Tor-M2MK.
As for now, total land vehicle recorded losses are:
Armenian losses:
- 7x AD Systems
- 2x Tanks
- 1x IFV/APC
Azerbaijan losses:
- 5x/6x Tanks lost
- 7x APC lost + 1 damaged
- 1x IFV lost
- 1x Engineering vehicle
- 6x Trucks
Armenia claims to have destroyed 35-50 enemy vehicles in total.
- 11x Vehicle captured by Armenia (including Tanks and IFV's)
To these, Azerbaijan lost in the air:
- 4x Helicopters (1x confirmed by AZE MoD, this and another may be MI-8 transport heli's)
- 28x UAV's (if true, this would mean 77.7% losses for AZE UAV's forces)
With these losses Azerbaijan was able to conquer 7 villages near the border.
Keep in mind that the mechanized "advance" of Baku cannot go very far because of mountain terrain.
When Azerbaijan will arrive there (if they arrive there uh, as that would mean losing thousand of troops and hundreds of vehicles), the war will become, more than it is now, a war of ATGM's.
Turkey will be an important factor, as it is already sending Syrian Volounteers to fight against Armenia.
So basically the Caucasus will become Idlib 2.0, with turkish volounteers and ATGM's.
Keep an eye on the causalities, as soon a lot of recruits, volounteers and reservists will arrive to the frontlines, and losses will skyrocket!
Also keep an eye on Turkey.
They fighting in Syria, in Libya, in Armenia and very soon probably in Greece.
One false step and that could mean the end of the neo-ottoman empire, especially if the European powers (especially the Russian bear) decide to intervene (even just by sending volounteers and weapons)