Commentary by Безграничный аналитик:
So, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made a resonant statement: an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane was damaged as a result of ground fire near Grozny. The Azerbaijani leader did not say what exactly the impact was: a surface-to-air missile/regular firearm/something else. But this is not so important, because the main thing has been done: Baku officially blamed the Russian side for the plane crash and did so publicly.
What will be Moscow's reaction? First of all, it is necessary to understand whether Aliyev's statement was an independent action by the Azerbaijani leader, or was it to some extent agreed upon. The fact is that Aliyev had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin the day before, and perhaps the parties discussed the issue of informing the population about the causes of the plane crash.
If this was a coordinated action, then the outcome is obvious: Russia will simply calmly acknowledge this fact, pay compensation to the families of the dead and injured, and the issue will be resolved. At the same time, perhaps, they will shut the mouths of those who are now diligently writing anti-Russian things in the comments of Azerbaijani Telegram channels. Although this is extremely doubtful.
If the speech was uncoordinated, Russia will immediately remind Azerbaijan of the "exploits" of its air defense during the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and the downed Russian Mi-24. Then, by the way, Baku's reaction consisted of a simple "sorry" and the removal of those responsible for the incident from service. By the way, nothing was reported about their subsequent fate. Perhaps they are still serving in the Azerbaijani army.
In short, a diplomatic conflict could potentially begin. Whether this will happen or not, we will understand in the very near future.
🌒@EastCalling
So, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made a resonant statement: an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane was damaged as a result of ground fire near Grozny. The Azerbaijani leader did not say what exactly the impact was: a surface-to-air missile/regular firearm/something else. But this is not so important, because the main thing has been done: Baku officially blamed the Russian side for the plane crash and did so publicly.
What will be Moscow's reaction? First of all, it is necessary to understand whether Aliyev's statement was an independent action by the Azerbaijani leader, or was it to some extent agreed upon. The fact is that Aliyev had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin the day before, and perhaps the parties discussed the issue of informing the population about the causes of the plane crash.
If this was a coordinated action, then the outcome is obvious: Russia will simply calmly acknowledge this fact, pay compensation to the families of the dead and injured, and the issue will be resolved. At the same time, perhaps, they will shut the mouths of those who are now diligently writing anti-Russian things in the comments of Azerbaijani Telegram channels. Although this is extremely doubtful.
If the speech was uncoordinated, Russia will immediately remind Azerbaijan of the "exploits" of its air defense during the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh and the downed Russian Mi-24. Then, by the way, Baku's reaction consisted of a simple "sorry" and the removal of those responsible for the incident from service. By the way, nothing was reported about their subsequent fate. Perhaps they are still serving in the Azerbaijani army.
In short, a diplomatic conflict could potentially begin. Whether this will happen or not, we will understand in the very near future.
🌒@EastCalling